Weather

[br6205]

TY for the update. It is not not unusual. These tropical storms are small and a slight deviation means hit or miss. In addition if they hit cold water they weaken quickly or if they hit warm water they can explode. As they go north the former is the more likely. Let us hope that is what is happening.

 

[chac54]

Not much happening where I am on Cape Cod.

 

[br6205]

danleeh1984 I too am homebound for various reasons.

 

[mikeyank]

Not much happening where I am on Cape Cod.

Good to hear. I turned on the news briefly and heard that Block Island was in line for a direct hit. Hopefully Cape Cod will be spared. Being on a peninsula you guys are vulnerable to a bad storm. It is still calm where I am in Brooklyn.

 

[br6205]

Fortunately those areas that far east are use to this & as a result well prepared. I expect you will be okay my friend mike the yank lover!

 

[kgmets]

Yes. Prayers to all of you in here who are in the path of the storm. It sounds like there is a lot of soaking rains and some street flooding going on. And that won't stop right away. It looks like even Brooklyn and the rest of western Long Island is getting pounded by rain. (Even though the eye of the storm is currently off the eastern coast of L.I.) You may have another 10 hours or more of rain. Fortuantely the storm is moving at about 14 mph, which is rather fast. It really sucks when they soak you with rain and wind and move at only about 4-7 mph.

I hope Mikey, KG and Chac are doing okay.

Looks like we dodged a bullet in southwestern CT, because the eye of Hurricane Henri which, until Noon yesterday was forecast to hit my home town, made New England land fall today a little after Noon at Westerly, Rhode Island! Because we unexpectedly would up so further west the winds went way down and a northwesterly wind stopped the predicted storm surge flooding. It did do directly over Block Island, so my concern is for the residents there.

 

[tampa24]

Wow. That's much better than I expected.

 

[tampa24]

Looks like we dodged a bullet in southwestern CT, because the eye of Hurricane Henri which, until Noon yesterday was forecast to hit my home town, made New England land fall today a little after Noon at Westerly, Rhode Island! Because we unexpectedly would up so further west the winds went way down and a northwesterly wind stopped the predicted storm surge flooding. It did do directly over Block Island, so my concern is for the residents there.

That's great that everybody we know of in here is checking in and doing okay. And so far at least you haven't lost power.

 

[br6205]

As these storm head out of the SE US they become more instable and harder to predict always keep that in mind. Just the same the news is good to hear.

 

[kgmets]

Not much happening where I am on Cape Cod.

Looks like you will be OK. After New England land fall at Westerly, Rhode Island, the storm went due northwest to Hartford on its way to northwestern CT and is predicted to burn itself out in central Mass. So the Cape should be fine.

 

[tampa24]

Great! I'm so glad it wasn't much worse for you guys.

A low-end hurricane/strong tropical storm. Who knew that southern New England and the Greater New York City area.....was in the tropics?

 

[kgmets]

Great! I'm so glad it wasn't much worse for you guys.

A low-end hurricane/strong tropical storm. Who knew that southern New England and the Greater New York City area.....was in the tropics?

First, many thanks for your good wishes. Second, more than we wanted to be this weekend!

 

[br6205]

I am only glad you all were spared.

 

[kgmets]

That's great that everybody we know of in here is checking in and doing okay. And so far at least you haven't lost power.

To illustrate how much of a hurricane bullet we dodged, the dire Saturday forecast and the utility companies projected that half to two thirds of the entire state of CT would be without power for up to twenty days. Poor Rhode Island is the state now dealing with the massive power outages (but Cape Cod is OK as Henri after making New England land fall at Westerly, Rhode Island then turned northwest to Hartford then to northwestern CT then to western Massachusetts and is now just a rainstorm headed out sea well north of Cape Cod).

 

[br6205]

Thanks for the update. Back when I was a kid I do recall those storms. They were exciting to me & a big reason I entered the field. But That was eons ago and as with most of me not into the stuff I was back then.

 

[kgmets]

Thanks for the update. Back when I was a kid I do recall those storms. They were exciting to me & a big reason I entered the field. But That was eons ago and as with most of me not into the stuff I was back then.

Funny you should mention that you were once in that field as @ Noon Saturday when my town in southwestern CT was predicted to be the Sunday landfall for the eye of the storm, the weather man said we are so close to the landing that there will be no more than a few miles movement in the predicted landfall. 24 hours later the storm moved @ 100 miles to another state! Weather forecasting is the only profession where you can be totally wrong, come back next day with no apology and be wrong again! At least it worked out for us this time.

 

[br6205]

kgmets the variables in meteorology are many . They can change in a very short time. We don't have the ability to incorporate them in any known model to make these micro gorecasts any better. It really is no different than certain than trying to predict what an insane person might do.

 

[tampa24]

Here we go again with Ida.

So who in here do we have who's living in or close to the coast anywhere in the central Gulf of Mexico? From southeastern Texas, encompassing all of the Louisiana Gulf coast, all of the Mississippi coast, and even the westernmost part of the Florida panhandle?

Unless the forecasters totally screw this up...this one could be really bad. If they start forecasting a landfall of a category 3 you have to take it very seriously. Not just because a Cat 3 hurricane is capable of damaging some buildings and tossing around mobile homes...but because a predicted Cat 3 hurricane can overachieve expectations, rapidly intensify, and come in as a Cat 5. And of course a Cat 5 is no joke. It means guaranteed loss of life, major flooding, major collapse of buildings, homes, trailer parks, huge storm surge, etc.

They started out predicting Ida's landfall as a Category 3. Now they've already bumped it up to a predicted probable Cat 4 at landfall. Which means they (the people living there) should be preparing for a worst case scenario of a Cat 5, and hope they're spared a true Cat 5. The other thing they have going against them is that the waters of the central Gulf are very warm right now. (Which is the fuel for tropical systems.) The other bad news is that the waters off the Louisiana coastline in particular are some of the warmest waters in the whole Gulf of Mexico right now. So rather than it being a scenario where you catch a break, have cooler waters off the coast and the hurricane weakens at least a little bit just before landfall...we could have the opposite situation where's it's still strengthening (perhaps rapidly) until the last moments before final landfall.

We could get lucky if the timing of landfall coincides with an eyewall regeneration cycle, where the storm naturally weakens briefly and shores up a new eyewall for itself. But that's technical stuff. Regardless though, this one will be a nail biter if the current forecast holds to be even three fourths true.

 

[br6205]

Once again I must state hurricanes can and often are erratic in their growth and movement. They can do all sorts of crazy unpredictable things so please understand that & be careful in what you say.

 

[mikeyank]

Good luck to all those apparently in the path of Ida. I hope you folks are spared as we on the northeast coast were last weekend with Henri.