The U.S. medical establishment is somewhat relying on a British document put out within the last 2 weeks. Here is a synopsis of some of its predictions. I won't post the full article but I'll give the link. These predictions are based on successful very aggressdive meassures of self-isolation, social distancing, along with well-equipped and well-staffed hositals. Please keep in mind that this is not a link to the full British study which I'm sure is full of medical terminology that will glaze over the eyes of most of us who are not medical professionals. Here is the most salient paragraph of this particular article though.
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"For the study, researchers used a simulation model that was originally developed to support pandemic flu planning and modified it to examine the impact of certain scenarios for the coronavirus pandemic. Their models show that under a mitigation strategy: “even if all patients were able to be treated, we predict there would still be in the order of 250,000 deaths in GB, and 1.1-1.2 million in the US.” It was not immediately clear what length of time researchers assumed to be the full course of the pandemic."
https://localnews8.com/health/2020/...-following-uk-epidemiologists-ominous-report/
Here is the latest guesstimate of the U.S. Corona mortality rate from Dr. Fauci.
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U.S. virus deaths could reach 200,000, Fauci warns as medical supplies run short
The coronavirus disease (COVID-19) outbreak in New York City
(Reuters) - U.S. deaths from coronavirus could reach 200,000 with millions of cases, the government's top infectious diseases expert warned on Sunday as New York, New Orleans and other major cities warned they would soon run out of medical supplies.
"Dr. Anthony Fauci, director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, estimated in an interview with CNN that the pandemic could cause between 100,000 and 200,000 deaths in the United States.
Since 2010, the flu has killed between 12,000 and 61,000 Americans a year, according to the website
https://www.cdc.gov/flu/pandemic-resources/1918-commemoration/pandemic-preparedness.htm of the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. The 1918-19 flu pandemic killed 675,000 in the United States, according to the CDC."
https://www.yahoo.com/news/u-cities-warn-medical-supplies-141101968.html
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Let's hope that Dr. Fauci is much closer to the final number than the British study.
Of course if local health systems in the U.S. collapse or underperform due to equipment and staffing shortages...then all bets are off. Seeing though that there is no federal nationwide response so far to the virus, and Trump has told us that the states and the 50 governors are the ones who should be leading the effort...it's quite reasonable to assume that the less wealthy states, or poorly led states (and the rural areas in particular) will suffer disproportionality higher losses.