Things are really out of control with this virus. Going to be a long winter.
Total agreement with that. I am not a scientist nor a medical doctor who works in epidemiology. That said, I worked for 30 years representing several companies who were sued on occasion for toxic exposure issues. I learned a lot about epidemiology and the basics of how things spread and how they affect a population. I read a lot of scientific papers on the subject. What is clear to me is that there are people who do not know the science or know a tiny amount and are more than willing to use their lack of expertise to support a political agenda. This virus, like any virus, has no political agenda nor does it care about the political agenda of any faction in this country nor anywhere else. It is only interested in spreading itself around in copies to other hosts, infecting them and spreading itself even further.
Far too many people are reading statistical data and not understanding it, are making incorrect extrapolations from it. The 99.99% number being tossed around is a great example of that sort of thing. It is a number based on estimates of populations [infected and non-infected] and averaged across that estimate as well as estimates of specific sections of the population. So yeah, is it more than likely that a person under the age of 18 will not die from this disease? Yes, it is. The same is true of measles. But still, 1 in 1000 kids who come down with measles die from it. And like measles, those kids who have been infected often have long term side-effects that can be with them the remainder of their life.
The fact is that the current Case Fatality Rate for this disease in the USA is 2.6%. That means that if you are infected, the likelihood of you dying is 2.6%. However, that is a general average and it varies based on other factors in different parts of the population and also shifts daily depending on the data. In the late spring and early summer, it was as high as 6%. We will not know the final numbers for the fatality rate until this epidemic is over because as long as it continues the numbers are going to vary. For example, the final Case Fatality Rate for the Spanish Flu was 2.5%. COVID is not going to be as bad but it is going to be worse than anything we have seen since the Spanish Flu epidemic and certainly will be higher than the average fatality rate for the common flu which runs around 0.1%. The other simple fact is that while expressed as a statistic, 2.6% seems low, consider what that means in actual lives lost in the country if the disease is allowed to run its course.
Certain people keep arguing that we have to keep the economy up and running no matter what, i.e., accept the casualty rate as a necessity. That argument ignores reality in a very dangerous manner. The people most dramatically affected in the economy are the ones we need to keep things running - the farmworkers, the people working in the food transportation industry, the people involved in the transportation of food and other necessities, the people manufacturing the necessities. And the people working in a large number of other jobs that ensure you receive the necessities of life, have proper water and sanitation, etc.
Those people work in jobs where they cannot work from home and where social distancing is close to, if not impossible. They tend to work in lower-paying jobs where they either have no medical benefits or the benefits they do have are not as extensive as those in medical plans that people with higher paying employment tend to have. As a result, they often have ongoing medical issues that are not controlled or not as well managed as someone whose medical coverage is more extensive. Thus they are exposed in higher numbers, infected in higher numbers, and die in higher numbers.
There is NO national plan to deal with this epidemic. The states have been on their own. In addition, the president and a substantial portion of the Republican politicians in this country have acted contrary to good science. The Wisconsin legislature sued to reopen the economy there far too soon and is fighting to keep it wide open as the infection rate in Wisconsin has risen to over 30%. The Texas AG and Governor, not exactly a brain trust, are suing El Paso which is struggling with skyrocketing numbers and hospitals filled to capacity. They do not want El Paso to shut down. The president is going around telling people not to fear the virus because if he could overcome it, anyone can. Well, Don, not everyone has the platinum medical coverage the President of the United States does, where their doctors will fly in experimental medications that cost over a million dollars a dose to treat them.
With luck, we will soon have an effective, safe vaccine [by soon I mean in the next 12 months] and we start to move beyond this disease. Until we do, we have to take proper precautions. That means a lot of people who seem adverse to washing their hands, wearing masks, maintaining social distancing, and behaving like mature adults are going to be upset that their "rights" are being violated.