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Russia & Ukraine War
- Thread starter BrokeStraightBoys
- Start date
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"Then they decided to push Erdogan into 4 pipes of the South Stream and entered Syria - this is after Soleimani gave deliberately false inputs in order to solve his problems. As a result, it was not possible to close the issue with Crimea, there are also problems with the Donbass, the South Stream has shrunk to 2 pipes, and Syria has hung with another headache (if we go out, they will demolish Assad, which will make us look like idiots, but it’s also difficult and useless to sit).
We go further. Syria. "The guys will hold out, everything will be over in Ukraine - and there in Syria we will again strengthen everything in positions." And now, at any moment, they can wait there for the contingent to run out of resources - and such a heat will set in ... Turkey blocks the straits - to transport supplies there by planes, it's like heating an oven with money."
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Prior to Syria the Turkish Stream or South Stream pipeline was pretty much considered a done deal.
When Putin got to Syria the Russians picked factions to support that put him at odds with President Erdogen of Turkey. Turkey had its own factions that it was supporting in the Syrian Thomas conflict.
I'll stop for a moment in the story to talk about Erdogen. Turkey after WWI has always strived to be a Muslim but secular Western oriented country. Erdogen has been trying to change some of that. He is a conservative Muslim who in the course of the last few years has been becoming a right wing authoritarian dictator. When the very secular Turkish army launched a coup against Erdogen's nascent dictatorship some years ago, I was actually hoping that the army's coup would succeed. It did not. I am not a fan of Erdogen. But he's who we have to deal with.
You would assume that with Turkey being a member of NATO that it would be very pro-U.S. and pro-Western. Yes. But not really. So if he's not pro-U.S. right now, one might assume that he is pro-Russian. Yes. But not really. In recent years he has really pissed off the Russians. But then he pisses off the U.S. too. He likes to be a tease who will not hesitate to stand up to either side. He announced a while back that he was purchasing some very expensive military equipment from Russia to the tune of billions of dollars and not buying a U.S. version.
But here's what he did to the Russians in Syria and afterwards. As I said Russia and Turkey both had some of their own sets of allies and enemies inside the free-for-all chaos that engulfed Syria. There was ISIS there, armed Kurdish factions, other factions with their own agendas, and Assad's government in Damascus teetering on the verge of collapse. Some enemies of Assad and the Russians were allies of the Turks, and vice versa.
Fast forward to the fall of 2015. A Russian plane was bombing positions of a faction on the ground allied with Turkey. It was also not far away from the Turkish border and within Turkey's air defense systems. Turkey sent a missile and shot down the Russian plane, killing one of the two Russian crew members. There was an uproar between Russia and Turkey. Tensions were extremely high. Erdogen held his ground up to a point...but he did apologize on behalf of the Turkish government.
But then...
Erdogen told the Russians later, after his "apology" for shooting down the plane...and having gone with the assumption all along that the South Stream would be 4 pipelines...that Turkey had decided to do away with the 2 "blue gas" sections of pipeline. So the Blue Stream section was never built. So this huge pipeline project that was supposed to bring in many many billions of dollars in future revenue for Russia was cut in half by Turkey's actions. It went from 4 huge pipes, down to 2. The other problem is that much of the equipment intended for the Blue Stream section had already been purchased. I've read that there are still some huge sections of industrial sized pipes intended for under-sea installation and already purchased and delivered, that sit wasting away littering the Russian coastline. For what the Russians had already spent and done on it prior to it being suddenly cancelled by Turkey, came out to about 2 billion dollars and who knows how many man-hours of labor down the drain.
"Then they decided to push Erdogan into 4 pipes of the South Stream and entered Syria - this is after Soleimani gave deliberately false inputs in order to solve his problems. As a result, it was not possible to close the issue with Crimea, there are also problems with the Donbass, the South Stream has shrunk to 2 pipes, and Syria has hung with another headache (if we go out, they will demolish Assad, which will make us look like idiots, but it’s also difficult and useless to sit).
We go further. Syria. "The guys will hold out, everything will be over in Ukraine - and there in Syria we will again strengthen everything in positions." And now, at any moment, they can wait there for the contingent to run out of resources - and such a heat will set in ... Turkey blocks the straits - to transport supplies there by planes, it's like heating an oven with money."
************************************************************************************
Prior to Syria the Turkish Stream or South Stream pipeline was pretty much considered a done deal.
When Putin got to Syria the Russians picked factions to support that put him at odds with President Erdogen of Turkey. Turkey had its own factions that it was supporting in the Syrian Thomas conflict.
I'll stop for a moment in the story to talk about Erdogen. Turkey after WWI has always strived to be a Muslim but secular Western oriented country. Erdogen has been trying to change some of that. He is a conservative Muslim who in the course of the last few years has been becoming a right wing authoritarian dictator. When the very secular Turkish army launched a coup against Erdogen's nascent dictatorship some years ago, I was actually hoping that the army's coup would succeed. It did not. I am not a fan of Erdogen. But he's who we have to deal with.
You would assume that with Turkey being a member of NATO that it would be very pro-U.S. and pro-Western. Yes. But not really. So if he's not pro-U.S. right now, one might assume that he is pro-Russian. Yes. But not really. In recent years he has really pissed off the Russians. But then he pisses off the U.S. too. He likes to be a tease who will not hesitate to stand up to either side. He announced a while back that he was purchasing some very expensive military equipment from Russia to the tune of billions of dollars and not buying a U.S. version.
But here's what he did to the Russians in Syria and afterwards. As I said Russia and Turkey both had some of their own sets of allies and enemies inside the free-for-all chaos that engulfed Syria. There was ISIS there, armed Kurdish factions, other factions with their own agendas, and Assad's government in Damascus teetering on the verge of collapse. Some enemies of Assad and the Russians were allies of the Turks, and vice versa.
Fast forward to the fall of 2015. A Russian plane was bombing positions of a faction on the ground allied with Turkey. It was also not far away from the Turkish border and within Turkey's air defense systems. Turkey sent a missile and shot down the Russian plane, killing one of the two Russian crew members. There was an uproar between Russia and Turkey. Tensions were extremely high. Erdogen held his ground up to a point...but he did apologize on behalf of the Turkish government.
But then...
Erdogen told the Russians later, after his "apology" for shooting down the plane...and having gone with the assumption all along that the South Stream would be 4 pipelines...that Turkey had decided to do away with the 2 "blue gas" sections of pipeline. So the Blue Stream section was never built. So this huge pipeline project that was supposed to bring in many many billions of dollars in future revenue for Russia was cut in half by Turkey's actions. It went from 4 huge pipes, down to 2. The other problem is that much of the equipment intended for the Blue Stream section had already been purchased. I've read that there are still some huge sections of industrial sized pipes intended for under-sea installation and already purchased and delivered, that sit wasting away littering the Russian coastline. For what the Russians had already spent and done on it prior to it being suddenly cancelled by Turkey, came out to about 2 billion dollars and who knows how many man-hours of labor down the drain.
So now we'll go with just the last paragraph:
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"We go further. Syria. "The guys will hold out, everything will be over in Ukraine - and there in Syria we will again strengthen everything in positions." And now, at any moment, they can wait there for the contingent to run out of resources - and such a heat will set in ... Turkey blocks the straits - to transport supplies there by planes, it's like heating an oven with money."
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The author here (OP) says he's very worried about resupplying the troops and forces down in Syria. Plus he's upset and worried because what was billed to them by the Iranians was probably a quick and easy short term campaign. Instead it's now a long term open-ended commitment that they can't easily get themselves out of.
I'm assuming the Russian troops in Syria can get some of their fuel locally and probably most of their food. But maybe they are counting on getting more jet fuel and other special military grade gasoline products from Russia itself. Plus they likely need troop rotations, more medicines and medical supplies, more ammunition, more replacement missiles, more artillery, and more spare parts to keep their aircraft and other vehicles in good working order. Otherwise their machinery (including trucks, jets and helicopters) become inoperable. It sounds like their supplies in Syria were already getting very low before this latest war even started. But the war in Ukraine was only supposed to take 3-4 days. Oops.
Now the demand for all of the military supplies needed in Syria are having to go mostly toward the war in Ukraine. OP seems to think (probably correctly) that Russia doesn't have (nor could they immediately afford) the supplies for two different Russian armies stationed in two different combat zones. So for now, the re-supply of the Russian contingent in Syria will have a very very long wait.
Then we get to OP's next big concern. Even IF Russia had all kinds of extra military-grade supplies for both armies simultaneously...there is the issue of trying to get them all through Turkey and down to Syria. On February 28 at the start of the war, Turkey closed off the Black Sea to any more warships of any nationality. Russia had sent 16 warships into the Black Sea before the war started. I don't know how many were already there or if 16 is the true number of all the warships they have in position. I tend to think they have more than 16. Of course whatever the number they have they're down their most advanced ship in the entire Black Sea with the sinking of the Moskva.
A couple catches with this new Turkish policy. Some warships can still enter. But only IF their home ports are in the Black Sea. For instance if any Russian warships currently in the Mediterranean try to enter the Dardanelles...and their home port is on the Baltic Sea...then they would be refused entry. No Russian Pacific fleet ships with home ports in the Pacific would be allowed to enter or reinforce the Black Sea, even if they were called and could make the trip that far. If a Russian warship left the Black Sea with supplies for Syria and its actual home port was other than on the Black Sea...then it wouldn't be allowed back in. Technically the Moskva would have been able to enter and leave freely because its home port was (past tense) in Sevastopol, Crimea. So it's a loss for one more reason. I don't know how many of those other 16 ships would not be allowed back in if they left.
Also, no aircraft carriers are ever allowed to enter through the Turkish straits.
Even these restrictions could tighten or get worse for the Russians though. It's possible that if Erdogen goes in a more pro-Ukrainian direction he might even refuse to let in or out any warships that try to resupply Syria. Then OP's nightmare comes true that the only way to resupply Syria would be by air. And that would be extremely time consuming and expensive compared to doing it by ship.
Let's also consider how risky it is in the Syrian Thomas/Middle Eastern neighborhood if word gets out that the Russian army there (and Assad's body guard) is low on ammo and supplies. If ISIS or other violent groups see an opportunity to try their luck and lash out at Assad or try to re-take former lost territory, the Russians could be put on the defensive. If violent people suspect that the Russians aren't strong enough and can't afford to fight two wars at the same time...Syria could re-erupt.
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"We go further. Syria. "The guys will hold out, everything will be over in Ukraine - and there in Syria we will again strengthen everything in positions." And now, at any moment, they can wait there for the contingent to run out of resources - and such a heat will set in ... Turkey blocks the straits - to transport supplies there by planes, it's like heating an oven with money."
**********************************************************************************
The author here (OP) says he's very worried about resupplying the troops and forces down in Syria. Plus he's upset and worried because what was billed to them by the Iranians was probably a quick and easy short term campaign. Instead it's now a long term open-ended commitment that they can't easily get themselves out of.
I'm assuming the Russian troops in Syria can get some of their fuel locally and probably most of their food. But maybe they are counting on getting more jet fuel and other special military grade gasoline products from Russia itself. Plus they likely need troop rotations, more medicines and medical supplies, more ammunition, more replacement missiles, more artillery, and more spare parts to keep their aircraft and other vehicles in good working order. Otherwise their machinery (including trucks, jets and helicopters) become inoperable. It sounds like their supplies in Syria were already getting very low before this latest war even started. But the war in Ukraine was only supposed to take 3-4 days. Oops.
Now the demand for all of the military supplies needed in Syria are having to go mostly toward the war in Ukraine. OP seems to think (probably correctly) that Russia doesn't have (nor could they immediately afford) the supplies for two different Russian armies stationed in two different combat zones. So for now, the re-supply of the Russian contingent in Syria will have a very very long wait.
Then we get to OP's next big concern. Even IF Russia had all kinds of extra military-grade supplies for both armies simultaneously...there is the issue of trying to get them all through Turkey and down to Syria. On February 28 at the start of the war, Turkey closed off the Black Sea to any more warships of any nationality. Russia had sent 16 warships into the Black Sea before the war started. I don't know how many were already there or if 16 is the true number of all the warships they have in position. I tend to think they have more than 16. Of course whatever the number they have they're down their most advanced ship in the entire Black Sea with the sinking of the Moskva.
A couple catches with this new Turkish policy. Some warships can still enter. But only IF their home ports are in the Black Sea. For instance if any Russian warships currently in the Mediterranean try to enter the Dardanelles...and their home port is on the Baltic Sea...then they would be refused entry. No Russian Pacific fleet ships with home ports in the Pacific would be allowed to enter or reinforce the Black Sea, even if they were called and could make the trip that far. If a Russian warship left the Black Sea with supplies for Syria and its actual home port was other than on the Black Sea...then it wouldn't be allowed back in. Technically the Moskva would have been able to enter and leave freely because its home port was (past tense) in Sevastopol, Crimea. So it's a loss for one more reason. I don't know how many of those other 16 ships would not be allowed back in if they left.
Also, no aircraft carriers are ever allowed to enter through the Turkish straits.
Even these restrictions could tighten or get worse for the Russians though. It's possible that if Erdogen goes in a more pro-Ukrainian direction he might even refuse to let in or out any warships that try to resupply Syria. Then OP's nightmare comes true that the only way to resupply Syria would be by air. And that would be extremely time consuming and expensive compared to doing it by ship.
Let's also consider how risky it is in the Syrian Thomas/Middle Eastern neighborhood if word gets out that the Russian army there (and Assad's body guard) is low on ammo and supplies. If ISIS or other violent groups see an opportunity to try their luck and lash out at Assad or try to re-take former lost territory, the Russians could be put on the defensive. If violent people suspect that the Russians aren't strong enough and can't afford to fight two wars at the same time...Syria could re-erupt.
I looked it up.
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$750 million
Forbes Ukraine has estimated that Moskva cost $750 million, making it the most expensive military loss of Russia to day. —The Kyiv Independent (@KyivIndependent)
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$750 million
Forbes Ukraine has estimated that Moskva cost $750 million, making it the most expensive military loss of Russia to day. —The Kyiv Independent (@KyivIndependent)
I apologize that my writing this evening has not been the best. My fault for writing most of these last posts between midnight and 3 am. lol
If I could do an edit, one big misspelling of mine in these previous posts is the name of Turkey's president. It's spelled Erdogan. With an a on the end, rather than an e. Sorry... My understanding is that his name is pronounced like, Air-dew-Juan.
Also whenever I spell Zelensky's name I admit that out of laziness I omit the last y. It's actually spelled Zelenskyy.
If I could do an edit, one big misspelling of mine in these previous posts is the name of Turkey's president. It's spelled Erdogan. With an a on the end, rather than an e. Sorry... My understanding is that his name is pronounced like, Air-dew-Juan.
Also whenever I spell Zelensky's name I admit that out of laziness I omit the last y. It's actually spelled Zelenskyy.
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well, I do believe in a God. But many people's faiths were similarly shaken by events like the Holocaust.
One more thing I'd like to mention with regards to the maps of Russian gas pipelines to Western Europe. Prior to the war the North Stream of the pipeline (or Nord Stream) was still on track to be completed. After the war started Germany said that they were permanently canceling Nord Stream.
We will see if they follow thru.
Exactly. They need to stay strong and avoid the temptation of changing their minds later.
I have no way of verifying the authenticity of this reporting. But they say here that claims that the Moskva's crew of 500 men was safely evacuated, and the ship then sank in stormy weather as it was being towed back to port, are untrue. It says the Moskva sank within minutes of being hit and resulted in a total loss of life.
kgmets
BSB God
Not only is US intelligence now satisfied that Ukrainian missles sank that that flagship, but Russia has since been bombing the launch site, which is their implicit confirmation as well.
juanjo
BSB Addict
For those interested in finding out more about the monster Putin watch yesterday's Rachel Maddow show & just how he got promoted to his present position. One lesson, it pays to have a technical expert to insure your PC (includes all devices connected to the internet) is un-hackable.
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Here's another POW video where the prisoner's mother (knowing full well that her son's safety is dependent on good treatment by his captors) starts spouting all the hateful propaganda about Ukraine they are being fed on state controlled tv. It's a whole bunch of b.s. lies. At 25 mins long it's up to all of you if you want to watch it.
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