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Russia & Ukraine War

Russian has a history of tyrants. As to harvests, Russia need the import far more than they export & our sanctions will take months to really bite the Russians. Also our far right & some on Fox are the biggest cheer leaders Putin has outside Russia.
 
Russian has a history of tyrants. As to harvests, Russia need the import far more than they export & our sanctions will take months to really bite the Russians. Also our far right & some on Fox are the biggest cheer leaders Putin has outside Russia.

Russia has suppressed all independent media, only broadcasts government propaganda with only one exception: Tucker Carlson translated into Russian. The star of Fox has become the modern Tokyo Rose from WWII!
 
Russia has suppressed all independent media, only broadcasts government propaganda with only one exception: Tucker Carlson translated into Russian. The star of Fox has become the modern Tokyo Rose from WWII!

Agree
 
Russia has suppressed all independent media, only broadcasts government propaganda with only one exception: Tucker Carlson translated into Russian. The star of Fox has become the modern Tokyo Rose from WWII!

Yes. He would be quite welcome in Moscow right now. As far as spewing pro-Putin propaganda.
 
I saw an interview tonight with a woman who is a member of the Ukrainian parliament. She was asked about the conditions Putin has laid out for a possible cessation of the war. Such as officially giving up Crimea, giving up Donbas and other eastern border territory, along with Ukrainian neutrality and demilitarization. (As in agreeing to disarm and not have any army to defend the country in the future.) She scoffed at that and said that Ukraine was already neutral and non-aligned when Putin invaded them in 2014 and took over Crimea. She said in English with no translation needed, "Neutrality today, is slavery tomorrow."
 
I saw an interview tonight with a woman who is a member of the Ukrainian parliament. She was asked about the conditions Putin has laid out for a possible cessation of the war. Such as officially giving up Crimea, giving up Donbas and other eastern border territory, along with Ukrainian neutrality and demilitarization. (As in agreeing to disarm and not have any army to defend the country in the future.) She scoffed at that and said that Ukraine was already neutral and non-aligned when Putin invaded them in 2014 and took over Crimea. She said in English with no translation needed, "Neutrality today, is slavery tomorrow."

It looks like Ukraine can and would give up on NATO as they recognize that NATO will not take them in any event and possibly recognize Russian control of Crimea and the two statelets. But after what Russia has done and is still doing the past month, demilitarization has to be out of the question.
 
It looks like Ukraine can and would give up on NATO as they recognize that NATO will not take them in any event and possibly recognize Russian control of Crimea and the two statelets. But after what Russia has done and is still doing the past month, demilitarization has to be out of the question.

Agree
 
It is now becoming clearer that the Ukraine disaster will not end well for Russia & more than a pip dream that the man who caused it will pay for it & be deposed. When it happens is still unknown but it wii happen.
 
Reports today that Russia is trying to starve Ukrainians out, in some kind of medieval siege warfare. MSNBC is reporting that a massive food storage warehouse in Kyiv, that serves as a national warehouse for food distribution throughout the whole country...has been bombed by Russian , not just once, but twice. It held 50,000 tons of food. It's now completely destroyed.

It will be up to the West to supply massive amounts of food to Ukraine. That will have to continue until it's possible and safe enough for them to plant crops and become self-sufficient on their own domestic food supply once again. And who knows how long that will be.
 
I wanted to continue on with more analysis of the whistleblower document. Any comments in [brackets] are my own and not part of the original quote of the document. I'll refer to the author of the report who I presume to be an analyst on the FSB team, by the more common internet title (and easier to type descriptor) of "OP".


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"In general, a report is being written that when a meteorite falls, we have everything to eliminate the consequences, we are great, everything is fine. And you concentrate on tasks that are real - we don’t have enough strength anyway. And then suddenly they really throw meteorites and expect that everything will be according to your analytics, which was written from the bulldozer. [From the "Dumpster of bullshit" maybe?]

That is why we have a total piz_ets - I don’t even want to pick another word. [Presumably a strong curse word] There is no protection from sanctions for the same reason: well, it’s quite possible that Nabiullina will be sewn up with negligence (rather, the switchmen from her team), but what are they to blame for? No one knew that there would be such a war, so no one prepared for such sanctions. This is the reverse side of secrecy: since no one was told, then who could calculate what no one told about?

Kadyrov is going crazy. And the conflict almost started with us: perhaps even the Ukrainians threw in misinformation that it was we who handed over the routes of Kadyrov's special forces in the first days of the operation. They were covered there on the march in a terrible way, they had not yet begun to fight, but they were simply torn to pieces in some places. And off we go: it was the FSB that leaked the routes to the Ukrainians. I do not have such information, I will leave 1-2% for reliability (it cannot be completely ruled out either)."

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OP has already strongly put forth his exasperation with the sometimes fatal flaw of his and their jobs at analytics. That being that they are not encouraged to tell the truth in their reports if they have bad news or dire and pessimistic predictions. Most times they feel forced to outright lie about the difficulty of solving a possible upcoming problem. Or they go with the most rosy of possible scenarios, even if it's one of the most highly unlikely ones. Analysts feel obligated to go with the most nationalistic (fascist?) and optimistic propaganda in their reports. Reports which comply with the dictatorial regime and corporate culture that Russia can overcome every possible obstacle (with minimal cost and effort) simply by virtue of being such a great country. So honesty, free speech and highly reasoned and intelligent, well thought-out predictive analyses...go out the window.

Someone high up in the analytics management of the FSB ("Nabiullina") is catching holy hell for why Russia was not better prepared with contingency plans (from her team) for dealing with possible economic sanctions and military setbacks in the war. Even though such contingency plans were never asked for ahead of time in the first place...because even the FSB was lied to and misled about the reality of the upcoming war.

OP is pointing to the irony and dark humor (for them) that even if the powers that be had told the FSB of the upcoming war and asked for contingency plans ahead of time...that the reports would have leaned so optimistically and nationalistically in a best case scenario direction for Russia...that they probably would have been worth less than the paper they were printed on. Or as he said earlier, they probably would have been mostly "written from the bulldozer" also.

OP is personally very pessimistic about how well the country will cope with the sanctions. In other sections of his letter he all but predicts economic collapse and catastrophe. There were no realistic contingency plans on the shelf for how to best cope with and mitigate the worst effects of the sanctions. So every Russian response to the sanctions right now is being done haphazardly and on the fly.

OP also alludes to a tantalizing incident in which one of the Russian army columns invading Ukraine at the beginning of the war was pretty much ambushed and obliterated because the Ukrainians knew exactly where those troops would be, and when. OP doesn't rule out the possibility that someone higher up in the FSB itself got last-minute word of Russian war plans and tipped off the Ukrainians. Or there was possibly a Ukrainian sympathizer or spy planted high up in the Russian military itself who tipped off the Ukrainian generals.
 
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If I could make one more edit to the post above, it would be that if analytics had been done to come up with scenarios and plans in advance for coping with the sanctions, I think they might have been modestly helpful for the Russians. But I think OP himself would be doubtful on whether any suggestions they might have come up with in advance would be able to prevent a collapse of the economy regardless. Delay it by a little bit...perhaps. But not prevent it altogether. The analytics could indeed have been useless.

But again, the culture there is such that I don't think they would have been allowed to predict a collapse of the Russian economy in advance anyways. Or short of predicting a collapse, I still don't think they could have foretold just how difficult the sanctions would be, nor how tough decisions would get, after the fact. Brutal honesty about that was probably one of the necessary factors in possibly having prevented the war in the first place. But there is no total honesty in the Russian analytics for all the reasons stated above.
 
Yesterday the Ukrainians killed their fourth Russian Major General out of a total of twenty and launched a ground troop counterattack on several fronts. Ingeniously they did not attempt to recover lost ground but rather surprise attacked the sides and rear of Russian troops wiping out and immobilizing many tanks and running up the Russian casualty count. With all the understandable attention on the brutal Russian bombing attacks, their troops are not moving and appear to be demoralized, the Russian government at this point may be unsure of their Army's willingness to fight. Ukraine still controls 90% of its territory and all but one of its cities. If there was a no fly zone, Ukraine would be decisively winning this war right now. I understand why the US believes that a no fly zone would start World War III, but it is obvious why the Ukrainian President wants it so much.
 
Yesterday the Ukrainians killed their fourth Russian Major General out of a total of twenty and launched a ground troop counterattack on several fronts. Ingeniously they did not attempt to recover lost ground but rather surprise attacked the sides and rear of Russian troops wiping out and immobilizing many tanks and running up the Russian casualty count. With all the understandable attention on the brutal Russian bombing attacks, their troops are not moving and appear to be demoralized, the Russian government at this point may be unsure of their Army's willingness to fight. Ukraine still controls 90% of its territory and all but one of its cities. If there was a no fly zone, Ukraine would be decisively winning this war right now. I understand why the US believes that a no fly zone would start World War III, but it is obvious why the Ukrainian President wants it so much.

I agree!
 
So to continue with other another section of the letter:

*****************************************************************


"Blitzkrieg failed. It is simply impossible to complete the task now:

if Zelensky and the authorities were captured in the first 1-3 days, they seized all the key buildings in Kyiv, they gave them the order to surrender - yes, the resistance would subside to the minimum values. In theory. But what's next? Even with this ideal variant, there was an unsolvable problem: with whom to negotiate? If we demolish Zelensky, well, with whom should we sign agreements? If with Zelensky, then after we demolish it, these papers are worth nothing.

Opposition Platform for Life refused to cooperate: Medvedchuk is a coward, he fled. There is a second leader there - Boyko, but he refuses to work with us - even his own people will not understand him. They wanted to return Tsarev, so even our pro-Russians turned against him. Return Yanukovych? But as? If we say that it is impossible to occupy, then any of our authorities will be killed there in 10 minutes, as we leave. Occupy? Where are we going to get so many people? Commandant's offices, military police, counterintelligence, security - even with minimal resistance from the locals, we need 500 thousand or more people. Not counting the supply system. And there is a rule that by covering the poor quality of management with quantity, you only spoil everything. And this, I repeat, would be with the ideal option, which does not exist."

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OP talks about how with the planned speedy and decisive "Lightning War" attempt on Ukraine having completely failed and stalled out, they have few good options for replacing Zelensky with Russian puppets and figureheads. Even if or when they succeed in taking Kyiv, killing Zelensky, (or sending him fleeing into exile) toppling the rest of the government, and installing a pro-Russian puppet leader... That's just the beginning of a whole other set of problems for the Russians.

If the Kremlin wants to occupy Kyiv and other major parts the country, OP says they would need at least 500,000 troops. They have about 170,000 there right now. I've heard that that 170,000 represents about 60% (possibly more?) of their whole standing army right now. So a heavy and long-lasting occupation is not a viable option for them. But if they don't occupy the country but still try to install a puppet leader in the government and then pull out their troops... OP says the Ukrainians will kill him in about 10 minutes.

He then goes down a list of possible puppets the Russians might want to install as president of the country. (If they could.) He says none of them are really viable for various different reasons. Yanukovych in particular has a lot of baggage. He's the pro-Russian puppet that the Ukrainians already revolted against and forcibly overthrew in 2014. Like a coward he fled Kyiv and hightailed it for a plane to escape to Moscow. Putin was highly irate with Yanukovych that he didn't stay and fight to remain in power.

Notice that Zelensky, at the first sign of trouble, did not get on the first plane to Warsaw or some other Western capital.
 
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I'll continue with another section of the letter:

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"What now? We cannot announce mobilization for two reasons:


1) Large-scale mobilization will undermine the situation inside the country: political, economic, social.

2) Our logistics are already overstretched today. We will drive a many times larger contingent, and what will we get? Ukraine is a hefty country in terms of territory. And now the level of hatred towards us is going through the roof. Our roads simply won't be able to handle such supply caravans - everything will come to a standstill. And we won't manage to pull it out - because it's chaos. And these two reasons fall out at the same time, although even one is enough to break everything off.

Losses: I don't know how many there are. Nobody knows. For the first two days there was still control, now no one knows what is going on there. You can lose large units in communication. They can be found, or they can dissolve due to being attacked. And there, even the commanders may not know how many of them are running around somewhere nearby, how many died, how many are in captivity. The number of deaths is definitely in the thousands. Maybe 10 thousand, maybe 5, or maybe only 2. Even at the headquarters they don’t know for sure. But it should be closer to 10. And now we don’t count the LDNR corps - they have their own accounting.

Now, even if Zelensky is killed, taken prisoner, nothing will change. There is Chechnya in terms of hatred towards us. And now even those who were loyal to us are against it. Because it was planned from above, because we were told that there would be no such option, unless we were attacked. Because they explained that it was necessary to create the most credible threat in order to peacefully agree on the right conditions. Because we were initially preparing protests within Ukraine against Zelensky. Excluding our direct entry. Intrusions, to put it simply.

Further civilian losses will go exponentially - and resistance to us will also only increase. They already tried to enter the cities with infantry - out of twenty landing groups, only one had a conditional success. Remember the assault on Mosul - after all, this is the rule, so it was in all countries, nothing new.

Keep under siege? According to the experience of military conflicts in the same Europe in recent decades (Serbia is the largest testing ground here), cities can be under siege for years, and even function. Humanitarian convoys from Europe there are a matter of time."

*************************************************************

Much of this very straightforward and translated into decent English. I'll just elaborate on a few points.

There was talk a couple weeks ago, that with the beginning of the war going very badly for the Russians, that Putin would soon declare martial law in Russia. A declaration of martial law would make it easier for the state to restrict the media and the press even more than it already has. It would allow military and even civilian courts to further stifle internal Russian dissent to the war by jailing and executing anybody expressing opposition to the war or opposition to Putin himself. The courts could execute them very quickly (without the pesky formalities of trials) with the designation of them being labeled "traitors" during a time of war.

Regrettably that much might still happen.

The other aspect of a declaration of martial law would likely be an announcement of mobilization. If Russia was to put together enough of a fighting force to "win the war" and occupy Ukraine, it would have to forcibly draft at least another 300,000 troops. Russia has a large population of over 144 million people. So in itself finding over 300,000 able-bodied men would not be difficult. But OP himself explains why that's not feasible either.

Pulling 300,000 men out of the domestic workforce, separating them from their families and children, paying them all directly out of the state treasury, getting them all training, uniforms and weapons, shipping them out and clogging the highways and railroads of the country, for a war that is not spectacularly popular within Russia already...would be a nightmare for the country to handle.

I'll jump ahead and bring up another aspect that OP talks about later in the letter. He indicates that while Russia is having a hard time trying to supply weapons, ammunition and food to its soldiers in Ukraine.... That their forces in Syria are running very low on those same supplies also. Trying to juggle the war in Ukraine with their heavy military presence in Syria is already straining the country's military resources and budget.

That brings up the root reason of his underlying sense of doom for which OP doesn't actually say out loud. (Because he already knows it to be an obvious fact.) The truth is that Russia is not an economic superpower. It's only claim to superpower status lies in its large stockpile of nuclear weapons and the vast size of the country. Even if there were zero economic sanctions against them, their commitments in Syria and Ukraine are hefty.

They. Can't. Afford. It. Russia is not a rich country. They are over-extended to put it mildly.

And they definitely can't afford to draft and mobilize 300,000 more men for a prolonged war and occupation in Ukraine.

The GDP of Russia was around $1.4 trillion for 2020. Only slightly more than that of Spain. (The 2020 GDP of the U.S. was $20.9 trillion.)

Spain has only 47 million citizens (and a tiny fraction of Russia's vast landmass) to provide for with their $1.2 trillion.

Russia has 144 million citizens to provide for with their $1.4 trillion, in the largest single country on the planet.

Putin has never been so vulnerable. While it's too soon to predict any imminent demise... I'm going to go out on a limb and say that I sense that within the Kremlin that Putin's status is weakened, and there's some blood in the water. He definitely f'd up in launching the war. He has to be at least somewhat worried about his hold on power right now.
 
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Tampa we agree on that, the only factor is the when.
 
I'd like to bring up some other points here. We know that Russia is having a hard time feeding its soldiers in Ukraine. There have been reports that some of the MRE's that were sent into Ukraine in the beginning of the war had expiration dates of 2002. Last night on tv they showed a captured Russian tank in Ukraine. It still had scattered belongings of the soldiers who had used it last. Inside they found an opened Russian MRE that was uneaten for some reason. *Sarcasm alert* Maybe that's because once the Russian soldier opened it, the packaged food inside had labels with clearly written expiration dates of 2015.

So if the Russian government is struggling to feed the 170,000 soldiers it already has there, it would be nearly impossible for them to properly feed another 300,000 men. And even if they attempted that scale of mobilization, the money to feed all those 470,000 (or more) would be another drain directly out of the national government budget. In a time of heavy sanctions on them no less.
 
Tampa that all may be true but you are dealing with a man who will do anything to win. Therefore he will try the impossible.

On another matter, Mike has been silent for days is he okay?
 
On another matter, Mike has been silent for days is he okay?
This is irrelevant to this thread, but thank you Br. I am fine. I glance at all discussion threads but unless I have something which I consider worthwhile to contribute I will refrain from commenting. As you told me earlier this week, the forum has changed and I’ve decided to limit my posting. But rest assured I am still here. Thank you for your concern.
 
This is irrelevant to this thread, but thank you Br. I am fine. I glance at all discussion threads but unless I have something which I consider worthwhile to contribute I will refrain from commenting. As you told me earlier this week, the forum has changed and I’ve decided to limit my posting. But rest assured I am still here. Thank you for your concern.

The Forum may have changed but I for one read everything you write & a day without (note thanks to you I do not use wo) hearing from you is for me not a complete day.
 
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