I just wanted to share a few musings on the conflict so far. As I've mentioned elsewhere I have been very disappointed that so few YouTube clips are able to be posted on this thread. Nevertheless I will share some of the conclusions I've come to understand from YT as well as other media sources and my own background knowledge and research on the subject.
These points won't necessarily be in order of importance. But merely my stream of consciousness order of access to what I want to share. lol
I've heard musings that Putin and his inner circle are already plotting and planning ways to flee Russia if the war turns so badly for them that there is risk of an internal coup to topple them by force. While that would not fit Putin's strongman image that he wants to project at all costs, it would also be foolish of him not to have a Plan B in place for his own safety. There are rumors that he and his cronies have eyes on South America. Namely Venezuela, Argentina and Uruguay as possible friendly ports in a storm if things really hit the fan in Mother Russia. While it's not impossible that Russia could still pull out something it could call a victory in Ukraine... It's certainly not looking very good for them right now.
In addition to this the longer the sanctions are in place, the more (and almost inevitably sooner) their economy starts to collapse. The Russian Bank and state treasury officials made some very smart decsions that avoided an immediate meltdown. But the spare inventory already inside Russia of fresh Western goods and Western technological parts will eventually run out and not be replaceable. The clock is ticking for Russia to end the war quickly with a win. As well, they would need to get some kind of negotiated settlement wherein the sanctions are lifted. And fast. If not, the country will be headed into both a near and possibly long term economic decline. With much help from the West, Ukraine can hold out and run down the clock. Russia cannot. As long as Western resolve holds, nobody blinks, the sanctions aren't circumvented, the boycott of Russian oil and gas supplies to Europe stays in place, and financial and military support to Ukraine continues... Time is not on Russia's side.
There is much talk that Russia is purposely leaving their dead on the field (or burying them in mass graves) so as not to have to identify them or pay reimbursments to the families.
I'm pretty sure that Ukraine already has battle plans on the books for retaking all of Crimea. I've been wondering if they have the capability and the will to try to tackle such a vast undertaking in winter. If not, I'm fairly certain that that process will start in the spring. The loss of Crimea could be the crippling blow that would send Putin fleeing for exile. It could be the final straw that leads to Martial Law and tanks in the streets of Moscow. While the full history of the Russo-Ukrainian War is yet to be written, Putin's desired image and hoped for legacy of an utterly brilliant statesman and tactician (albeit ruthless, cruel, tyrannical and murderous) is already in tatters. He may very well preside over the second collapse of the Soviet Union. Except now it could be the Russian Federation.
If Ukraine takes back Crimea there is no way in hell that they will let the Russian navy keep its open access to the ports there such as Sevastopol. The Ukrainians will nationalize every bit of the Russian shipyards there as reparations for the war. The last offical agreement Russia had to lease the naval port of Sevastopol from Ukraine was by a treaty called the Kharkiv Pact in 2010. In the accords Ukraine agreed to lease Sevastopol to the Russian Black Sea Fleet through 2024. In return Russia agreed to compensate Ukraine with below market discounted Russian gas.
If Ukraine succeeds in kicking Russia out of Crimea and forever bans the Russian navy, it will be a devastating blow to them as a world power. Imperial Russia's, the USSR's and thereby the Russian Federation's biggest geo-political weakness has always been its lack of access to year-round warm water ports. If the Russain navy is kicked out of Crimea altogether, it has only a relatively tiny footprint of territory on the Sea of Azov and the Black Sea. It could probably resort to using some ports along the eastern Black Sea coast if it had to. But the fact that modern Soviet and Russian navies did not use those areas in the past could be due to such factors as not enough depth at the shoreline to accomodate huge ships, or some other geological impediments.
Regardless though, if Russia's navy can't operate from Crimea, Russia's reach and influence in the Black Sea, the Mediterranian, the Middle East, Africa, Southern Europe, etc, will be greatly reduced. It would be left with its naval base in the Baltic Sea in Kalliningrad, and its ports in the Arctic (north of Saint Petersburg) that are not suitable for winter use. It would still have its Pacific coast ports, but not much in Europe. Trying to convert any ports along the Sochi coastline (with possible dredging) and building sprawling modern naval shipyards, transportation links inland, ancillary support services, etc, would cost many billions and take years to build.
Before I reach the TLDR limit, I'll stop here for now. haha
These points won't necessarily be in order of importance. But merely my stream of consciousness order of access to what I want to share. lol
I've heard musings that Putin and his inner circle are already plotting and planning ways to flee Russia if the war turns so badly for them that there is risk of an internal coup to topple them by force. While that would not fit Putin's strongman image that he wants to project at all costs, it would also be foolish of him not to have a Plan B in place for his own safety. There are rumors that he and his cronies have eyes on South America. Namely Venezuela, Argentina and Uruguay as possible friendly ports in a storm if things really hit the fan in Mother Russia. While it's not impossible that Russia could still pull out something it could call a victory in Ukraine... It's certainly not looking very good for them right now.
In addition to this the longer the sanctions are in place, the more (and almost inevitably sooner) their economy starts to collapse. The Russian Bank and state treasury officials made some very smart decsions that avoided an immediate meltdown. But the spare inventory already inside Russia of fresh Western goods and Western technological parts will eventually run out and not be replaceable. The clock is ticking for Russia to end the war quickly with a win. As well, they would need to get some kind of negotiated settlement wherein the sanctions are lifted. And fast. If not, the country will be headed into both a near and possibly long term economic decline. With much help from the West, Ukraine can hold out and run down the clock. Russia cannot. As long as Western resolve holds, nobody blinks, the sanctions aren't circumvented, the boycott of Russian oil and gas supplies to Europe stays in place, and financial and military support to Ukraine continues... Time is not on Russia's side.
There is much talk that Russia is purposely leaving their dead on the field (or burying them in mass graves) so as not to have to identify them or pay reimbursments to the families.
I'm pretty sure that Ukraine already has battle plans on the books for retaking all of Crimea. I've been wondering if they have the capability and the will to try to tackle such a vast undertaking in winter. If not, I'm fairly certain that that process will start in the spring. The loss of Crimea could be the crippling blow that would send Putin fleeing for exile. It could be the final straw that leads to Martial Law and tanks in the streets of Moscow. While the full history of the Russo-Ukrainian War is yet to be written, Putin's desired image and hoped for legacy of an utterly brilliant statesman and tactician (albeit ruthless, cruel, tyrannical and murderous) is already in tatters. He may very well preside over the second collapse of the Soviet Union. Except now it could be the Russian Federation.
If Ukraine takes back Crimea there is no way in hell that they will let the Russian navy keep its open access to the ports there such as Sevastopol. The Ukrainians will nationalize every bit of the Russian shipyards there as reparations for the war. The last offical agreement Russia had to lease the naval port of Sevastopol from Ukraine was by a treaty called the Kharkiv Pact in 2010. In the accords Ukraine agreed to lease Sevastopol to the Russian Black Sea Fleet through 2024. In return Russia agreed to compensate Ukraine with below market discounted Russian gas.
If Ukraine succeeds in kicking Russia out of Crimea and forever bans the Russian navy, it will be a devastating blow to them as a world power. Imperial Russia's, the USSR's and thereby the Russian Federation's biggest geo-political weakness has always been its lack of access to year-round warm water ports. If the Russain navy is kicked out of Crimea altogether, it has only a relatively tiny footprint of territory on the Sea of Azov and the Black Sea. It could probably resort to using some ports along the eastern Black Sea coast if it had to. But the fact that modern Soviet and Russian navies did not use those areas in the past could be due to such factors as not enough depth at the shoreline to accomodate huge ships, or some other geological impediments.
Regardless though, if Russia's navy can't operate from Crimea, Russia's reach and influence in the Black Sea, the Mediterranian, the Middle East, Africa, Southern Europe, etc, will be greatly reduced. It would be left with its naval base in the Baltic Sea in Kalliningrad, and its ports in the Arctic (north of Saint Petersburg) that are not suitable for winter use. It would still have its Pacific coast ports, but not much in Europe. Trying to convert any ports along the Sochi coastline (with possible dredging) and building sprawling modern naval shipyards, transportation links inland, ancillary support services, etc, would cost many billions and take years to build.
Before I reach the TLDR limit, I'll stop here for now. haha
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