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Russia & Ukraine War
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Well said!
The editing on this one is not great. And the video cuts out mid sentence at the end. But... It does give a lot of thought provoking insights as to why the U.S., NATO and the West in general see any potential Russianvictory in Ukraine as an existential threat to us.
I had written earlier about the U.S. priority of not allowing Russia to conquer Ukarine or eke out anything that might look like a victory, due to China having its eyes on Taiwan. Zeihan takes it further than that here. Some media have suggested that 97% of the entire Russian army is in Ukraine. Yes. Of course they can always conscript more troops. But the point is that what they're showing of their conventional forces as far as strength, training, discipline, weaponry....is all they've got. As clumsy, corrupt, inept and undisciplined as they are... That's the best army they can muster in 2023. There are no other millions of elite divisions being held back in reserve. The only other clout and backup they have beyond this tattered army is their nulcear arsenal.
That's the army that Putin believed could take on NATO. An army he thought he could use to swiftly invade Poland, the Baltic States, other east European NATO countries and create a land bridge linking Russia proper to Kaliningrad an the Baltic coast. (Just like he wanted a land bridge from Russia to Crimea.) It is shocking that the vaunted mighty Russian Army that claimed to be second only to the U.S., turned out to be such a paper tiger.
I had written earlier about the U.S. priority of not allowing Russia to conquer Ukarine or eke out anything that might look like a victory, due to China having its eyes on Taiwan. Zeihan takes it further than that here. Some media have suggested that 97% of the entire Russian army is in Ukraine. Yes. Of course they can always conscript more troops. But the point is that what they're showing of their conventional forces as far as strength, training, discipline, weaponry....is all they've got. As clumsy, corrupt, inept and undisciplined as they are... That's the best army they can muster in 2023. There are no other millions of elite divisions being held back in reserve. The only other clout and backup they have beyond this tattered army is their nulcear arsenal.
That's the army that Putin believed could take on NATO. An army he thought he could use to swiftly invade Poland, the Baltic States, other east European NATO countries and create a land bridge linking Russia proper to Kaliningrad an the Baltic coast. (Just like he wanted a land bridge from Russia to Crimea.) It is shocking that the vaunted mighty Russian Army that claimed to be second only to the U.S., turned out to be such a paper tiger.
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Bill Clinton says he feels 'terrible' for pushing a 1994 agreement with Russia that resulted in Ukraine giving up its nuclear weapons
Azmi Haroun,Erin SnodgrassTue, April 4, 2023 at 9:20 PM EDT
Boris Yeltsin with Bill Clinton, 1998Wikimedia
- Bill Clinton expressed regret for his role in a 1994 agreement between Russia, Ukraine and the US.
- The agreement saw Ukraine give up nuclear weapons left over from the fall of the Soviet Union.
- Clinton said that if Ukraine still had the weapons, Russia would not have invaded.
In an interview with Irish news service RTÉ released on Tuesday, Clinton said that he felt a "personal stake" in Ukraine's fragile territorial integrity. He said he believed that Russia would not have invaded Ukraine in 2014, and in 2022, had the weapons still been in the country — a position that a Soviet historian echoed to Insider.
"I feel a personal stake because I got them [Ukraine] to agree to give up their nuclear weapons," Clinton said. "And none of them believe that Russia would have pulled this stunt if Ukraine still had their weapons."
In 1994, the US helped broker the Budapest Memorandum, with former Russian president Boris Yeltsin, and former Ukrainian president Leonid Kravchuk, with the intention of getting rid of nuclear weapons that were still stationed on Ukraine's territory after the fall of the Soviet Union.
The US also negotiated agreements for Russia to respect Ukraine's sovereignty and borders, which Clinton said was also shortsighted. Specifically, in 2014, Russia violated its promise that it would not challenge Ukraine's borders after the invasion of Crimea.
According to the Wall Street Journal, in 1994, Clinton eventually offered Kravchuk $700 million and "strong security assurances" for the disarmament of the nuclear weapons.
"I knew that President Putin did not support the agreement President Yeltsin made never to interfere with Ukraine's territorial boundaries — an agreement he made because he wanted Ukraine to give up their nuclear weapons," Clinton said in the interview. "They were afraid to give them up because they thought that's the only thing that protected them from an expansionist Russia."
Simon Miles, an assistant professor at Duke University's Sanford School of Public Policy and a historian of the Soviet Union and US-Soviet relations, told Insider that without the deal, Russia would have thought twice about invading Ukraine in 2014, and in 2022.
"A nuclear-armed Ukraine would enjoy high confidence of territorial integrity," Miles told Insider. "We would not see this invasion, in all likelihood."
He added that thinking about an imminent Russian invasion was not the only US motivation, as US foreign policy became heavily centered around denuclearization more broadly.
"A great deal had to do with the risks of proliferation and the challenges of keeping nuclear weapons secure," Miles said. "That was a big part of the US drive to denuclearize: countries like Ukraine and Kazakhstan had a lot on their plate, and nuclear weapons are expensive."
According to WSJ, after the 1994 deal was signed, Kravchuk said that, "if tomorrow Russia goes into Crimea, no one will raise an eyebrow."
Clinton acknowledged that Putin had foresight into how Ukraine was weakened, plotting his first opportunity to invade Crimea in 2014.
"When it became convenient to him, President Putin broke it and first took Crimea," Clinton said in the interview, referring to Russia's 2014 annexation of Crimea. "And I feel terrible about it because Ukraine is a very important country."
Read the original article on Business Insider
*****************************************************
Source: https://www.yahoo.com/news/bill-clinton-says-feels-terrible-012020701.html
juanjo
BSB Addict
Defenestration has a long history with the Russians. They tossed Jan Masaryk out a window in Prague after they led a coup against the government.
GoneWithTheWind
Well-known Member
Using 60 year old tanks now, eventually they will be using trebuchets.
www.forbes.com
The Russians Aren’t Just Running Out Of Tanks—They’re Running Out Of Tank Crews, Too. And It’s Going To Get Worse.
It’s possible thousands of experienced Russian tankers have died in the wider war; replacing them might be as difficult as replacing their tanks is.
www.forbes.com
Thanks for posting GWTW!
Yes. I've read that Russia had the most tanks of any other country. But indeed if it turns out that that is including WWII era, 1950ish, and 1970's relics... That doesn't count for much in today's warfare if you can't field a huge inventory of modern tanks on the battlefield.
Apparently the loss of around 2,000 tanks really has hurt them.
Yes. I've read that Russia had the most tanks of any other country. But indeed if it turns out that that is including WWII era, 1950ish, and 1970's relics... That doesn't count for much in today's warfare if you can't field a huge inventory of modern tanks on the battlefield.
Apparently the loss of around 2,000 tanks really has hurt them.
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juanjo
BSB Addict
The problem with that narrative is that one of his close staff recently defected to the West. He says that physically Putin is in good shape. However, Putin is extremely paranoid and rarely leaves his secured residences in or around Moscow. He will not fly but only travels by a highly armored and protected train. He is a serious germophobe and will not let anyone near him who has not undergone a quarantine period. He is terrified of being deposed. He does not use a cell phone or the internet. He only watches Russian newsservices. He gets all of his information via news summaries and analysis done by his staff.
Whatever the case he is a danger til he no longer is in control!
Yes. The latter statement is indicative of why he is stuck in a bubble. He's surrounded by sycophants and yes-men. (Who pretty much all hate and fear each by the way.) Apparently Putin's inner circle is terrified of giving the boss any bad news. So he doesn't get the honest truth even at the highest point of the country's leadership. That's at least partly why he misread the ease with which he thought he could win the war in Ukraine in 3 days. It seems there is very much a kill the messenger kind of mentality at play behind the walls of the Kremlin.
Some sources I've seen and read indicate that the FSB supposedly had all these pro-Russian Ukrainians on the payroll as sleeper agents who would help the Russians in the beginning of the invasion to sabotage Ukrainian defenses, rally people to the Russian side, etc. And to be sure there actually was some betrayal of the Ukrainian army by fifth column elements in Ukraine at the beginning of the war.
But... What I've heard is that the FSB grossly overestimated how many Ukrainians they had bought off to betray their country. How? Well... The FSB officers in charge of recruiting Ukrainian spies, saboteurs and traitors were given funds with which to buy them off. Instead of recruiting and buying off as many people in Ukraine as they claimed... They simply filed reports with names and details of ficticious people willing to help Russia, and pocketed the money they claimed to be using to pay them. So individual FSB agents with access to the pie treated that budget like a giant slush fund to line their own pockets.
That's just one issue among many as to why Ukraine didn't collapse like a house of cards the way the FSB reports led Putin to believe would happen at the onset of hostilities.
But... What I've heard is that the FSB grossly overestimated how many Ukrainians they had bought off to betray their country. How? Well... The FSB officers in charge of recruiting Ukrainian spies, saboteurs and traitors were given funds with which to buy them off. Instead of recruiting and buying off as many people in Ukraine as they claimed... They simply filed reports with names and details of ficticious people willing to help Russia, and pocketed the money they claimed to be using to pay them. So individual FSB agents with access to the pie treated that budget like a giant slush fund to line their own pockets.
That's just one issue among many as to why Ukraine didn't collapse like a house of cards the way the FSB reports led Putin to believe would happen at the onset of hostilities.
As everyone knows that a Ukrainian counter-offensive will begin within the next few weeks or possibly even days... It seems that the Russian goverment, the Russian army and various other elements of the military are getting nervous and trying to line up scapegoats in advance. (Just in case things really go to hell for Russia on the front lines.) They all want to be able to point fingers away from themselves if Ukraine makes any significant gains.
The title of this is misleading. It's not true that the war is over for Russia. It's not true that the Wagner group has left the front. Yet. But the Wagner group is obviously threatenting to. The flawed titles in the video not withstanding, the contents of the video are quite striking and illuminating. Within the treachorous circle of dictatorial Russian politics Prighozin is taking a direct swipe at Putin himself over the mismanagement and incompetence displayed by the official Russian army so far. That's usually the kind of talk that causes such people in Russia to accidentally fall of out of highrise windows. Or get poisoned to death. So perhaps Preghozin is not long for this world.
But the fact that he feels emboldened enough to do so anyway leads one to believe he feels Putin is vulnerable right now. Maybe Prighozin smells some blood in the water for the first time in Putin's dictatorship. And maybe Prighozin could be throwing his hat in the ring and vying as either a challenger, alternative or successor to Putin. Time will tell. Russian politics are often violent and full of palace intrigue.
The title of this is misleading. It's not true that the war is over for Russia. It's not true that the Wagner group has left the front. Yet. But the Wagner group is obviously threatenting to. The flawed titles in the video not withstanding, the contents of the video are quite striking and illuminating. Within the treachorous circle of dictatorial Russian politics Prighozin is taking a direct swipe at Putin himself over the mismanagement and incompetence displayed by the official Russian army so far. That's usually the kind of talk that causes such people in Russia to accidentally fall of out of highrise windows. Or get poisoned to death. So perhaps Preghozin is not long for this world.
But the fact that he feels emboldened enough to do so anyway leads one to believe he feels Putin is vulnerable right now. Maybe Prighozin smells some blood in the water for the first time in Putin's dictatorship. And maybe Prighozin could be throwing his hat in the ring and vying as either a challenger, alternative or successor to Putin. Time will tell. Russian politics are often violent and full of palace intrigue.
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Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy stands next to Ecumenical Patriarch Bartholomew I, the spiritual leader of the world's Orthodox Christians, at the Patriarchal Church of St. George in Istanbul, Turkey. Photo / AP
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy marked the 500th day of the war Saturday by hailing the country’s soldiers in a video from a Black Sea island that became the symbol of Ukraine’s resilience in the face of the Russian invasion.
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Speaking from Snake Island, Zelenskyy honoured the Ukrainian soldiers who fought for the island and all other defenders of the country, saying that reclaiming control of the island “is a great proof that Ukraine will regain every bit of its territory.
“I want to thank — from here, from this place of victory — each of our soldiers for these 500 days,” Zelenskyy said. “Thank you to everyone who fights for Ukraine!”
It was unclear when the video was filmed. Zelenskyy was returning from Turkey on Saturday.
/cloudfront-ap-southeast-2.images.arcpublishing.com/nzme/EL3GWEHFOFHM5LASCWGPU2TEB4.JPG)
Russia to build prison colonies and detention centres where torture is routine
Russia is making plans to hold potentially thousands more Ukranian civilians.
ablink.newsletter.mail-nzherald.co.nz
In fairness to Clinton, I have read elsewhere that Ukraine had inherited nukes from the old Soviet Union and did not have personel trained to use them, so getting an agreement to give up what could not be used in exchange for Russia's formal recognition of Ukraine's sovereign borders was not that bad a deal as no one foresaw a future Putin just ignoring that binding treaty. Legally almost every single argument Putin made for invading Ukraine was formally waived and given up by Russia by that Treaty of 1994.
Bill Clinton says he feels 'terrible' for pushing a 1994 agreement with Russia that resulted in Ukraine giving up its nuclear weapons
Azmi Haroun,Erin Snodgrass
Tue, April 4, 2023 at 9:20 PM EDT
Boris Yeltsin with Bill Clinton, 1998Wikimedia
Former US President Bill Clinton said that he regrets pressuring Ukraine to give up its nuclear warheads in a high-stakes negotiation in 1994.
- Bill Clinton expressed regret for his role in a 1994 agreement between Russia, Ukraine and the US.
- The agreement saw Ukraine give up nuclear weapons left over from the fall of the Soviet Union.
- Clinton said that if Ukraine still had the weapons, Russia would not have invaded.
In an interview with Irish news service RTÉ released on Tuesday, Clinton said that he felt a "personal stake" in Ukraine's fragile territorial integrity. He said he believed that Russia would not have invaded Ukraine in 2014, and in 2022, had the weapons still been in the country — a position that a Soviet historian echoed to Insider.
"I feel a personal stake because I got them [Ukraine] to agree to give up their nuclear weapons," Clinton said. "And none of them believe that Russia would have pulled this stunt if Ukraine still had their weapons."
In 1994, the US helped broker the Budapest Memorandum, with former Russian president Boris Yeltsin, and former Ukrainian president Leonid Kravchuk, with the intention of getting rid of nuclear weapons that were still stationed on Ukraine's territory after the fall of the Soviet Union.
The US also negotiated agreements for Russia to respect Ukraine's sovereignty and borders, which Clinton said was also shortsighted. Specifically, in 2014, Russia violated its promise that it would not challenge Ukraine's borders after the invasion of Crimea.
According to the Wall Street Journal, in 1994, Clinton eventually offered Kravchuk $700 million and "strong security assurances" for the disarmament of the nuclear weapons.
"I knew that President Putin did not support the agreement President Yeltsin made never to interfere with Ukraine's territorial boundaries — an agreement he made because he wanted Ukraine to give up their nuclear weapons," Clinton said in the interview. "They were afraid to give them up because they thought that's the only thing that protected them from an expansionist Russia."
Simon Miles, an assistant professor at Duke University's Sanford School of Public Policy and a historian of the Soviet Union and US-Soviet relations, told Insider that without the deal, Russia would have thought twice about invading Ukraine in 2014, and in 2022.
"A nuclear-armed Ukraine would enjoy high confidence of territorial integrity," Miles told Insider. "We would not see this invasion, in all likelihood."
He added that thinking about an imminent Russian invasion was not the only US motivation, as US foreign policy became heavily centered around denuclearization more broadly.
"A great deal had to do with the risks of proliferation and the challenges of keeping nuclear weapons secure," Miles said. "That was a big part of the US drive to denuclearize: countries like Ukraine and Kazakhstan had a lot on their plate, and nuclear weapons are expensive."
According to WSJ, after the 1994 deal was signed, Kravchuk said that, "if tomorrow Russia goes into Crimea, no one will raise an eyebrow."
Clinton acknowledged that Putin had foresight into how Ukraine was weakened, plotting his first opportunity to invade Crimea in 2014.
"When it became convenient to him, President Putin broke it and first took Crimea," Clinton said in the interview, referring to Russia's 2014 annexation of Crimea. "And I feel terrible about it because Ukraine is a very important country."
Read the original article on Business Insider
*****************************************************
Source: https://www.yahoo.com/news/bill-clinton-says-feels-terrible-012020701.html
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy stands next to Ecumenical Patriarch Bartholomew I, the spiritual leader of the world's Orthodox Christians, at the Patriarchal Church of St. George in Istanbul, Turkey. Photo / AP
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy marked the 500th day of the war Saturday by hailing the country’s soldiers in a video from a Black Sea island that became the symbol of Ukraine’s resilience in the face of the Russian invasion.
Volodymyr Zelenskyy - Latest news and information - NZ Herald
Get the latest Volodymyr Zelenskyy news, opinion and reader comment from NZ and around the world - The New Zeala...
g
Speaking from Snake Island, Zelenskyy honoured the Ukrainian soldiers who fought for the island and all other defenders of the country, saying that reclaiming control of the island “is a great proof that Ukraine will regain every bit of its territory.
“I want to thank — from here, from this place of victory — each of our soldiers for these 500 days,” Zelenskyy said. “Thank you to everyone who fights for Ukraine!”
It was unclear when the video was filmed. Zelenskyy was returning from Turkey on Saturday.
Re the first pic of Zelensky next to the Ecumenical Patriarch of Constantinople, there is great historical significance to this. In the late 1500s Ecumenical Orthodox Patriarch of Constantinople Jeremiah on his way to Moscow visited Lviv in western Ukraine and privately suggested to his faithful living under the Catholic Polish/Lithuanian Commonwealth to consider a union with the Catholic Pope of Rome to get better treatment from their Catholic rulers. Thereafter Jeremiah continued on to Moscow where he was held hostage for a year, and, to obtain his release agreed under protest to elevate the head of the Russian Orthodox Church from Metropolitan to Patriarch AND to transfer canonical jurisdiction over all Ukraine from Constantinople to Moscow. Upon return to Constantinople the Ecumenical Patriarch repudiated those extorted acts, but that's the way things stayed until after Putin seized Crimea and occupied eastern Ukraine in 2014. Between the late 1500s and 2014, western Ukraine was ruled by Catholic rulers until 1946 with the Ukrainian Greek Catholic Church the majority there, but eastern and central Ukraine were ruled by czarist and Soviet Russia, so Russian orthodoxy prevailed with the Ukrainian Catholics suppressed. After 2014, a movement amongst the majority Orthodox of eastern and central Ukraine arose to form a united Ukrainian Orthodox Church and to repudiate rule from Moscow and return to the historic oversight of the Ecumenical Patriarch of Constantinople. A few years later, the Ecumenical Patriarch of Constantinople formally accepted the leaving of the Ukrainian Orthodox from Moscow and its return to the canonical jurisdiction of Constantinople, which had always been Constantinople's position. Infuriated, the Moscow Russian Orthodox Church entered into schism and left the worldwide Orthodox Church, and this became one of Putin's reasons for invading Ukraine. So with this historical background, one can see the great significance of President Zelensky being photographed next to the Ecumenical Patriarch of Constantinople. The other uplifting thing about this photo is that President Zelensky is Jewish. At the time of his election to the Presidency of Ukraine, only two countries in the world had both a Jewish President and a Jewish Prime Minister, and the two countries were Israel and Ukraine! So there is a lot of historical significance to think about in this historic photo!
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