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Russia & Ukraine War

Here's an article that sums up some of the cynicism and pessimism that's creeping into Russian government media that is usually just a sensationalistic propaganda arm and an echo chamber for Putin. While I hardly consider the Daily Beast to be top notch U.S. journalism, this article is well written and concise. What it lacks in the flowery prose, specialized vocabulary and a certain dryness of some foreign policy treatises it makes up for by getting to the point and expressing in layman's terms what's happening in Russia. That being that the realization is dawning that Russia has gotten in over its head. Having failed at the genius plan of conquering all of Ukraine in three days...they're coming to terms with the fact that they are in for a long war. Possibly a very long one. Even the person on the street is slowly figuring out that the country literally can't afford it financially.

Also the fact that even though Russia is blessed with tremendous amounts of natural resources, diverting those resources right now to a huge military production buildup of the most modern weaponry would decimate the domestic economy. (They also lack many of the foreign made imported components needed to produce the most modern weapons right now.) The enterprise of moving all that human labor into military production and away from domestic peacetime production, while simultaneously sending more young able-bodied men off to the front, would/will have myriad grave unintended consequences that we can only guess at right now. Russia is a country with a GDP of less than that of Italy or Brazil. Plus, at least 30% of any new spending for a sudden Russian military buildup would be lost to corruption anyway.

Even the most loyal pro-Putin followers are coming to the realization that at best the country is in for a very rough ride for the next 1-3 years. At worst they fear they're totally screwed and that up to 20 years of economic progress and prosperity will be erased. Seemingly overnight.

Here's the article:

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Daily Beast


Putin’s Puppets Admit Their Army Has Been a Total Embarrassment


Julia Davis
Mon, May 9, 2022, 8:55 PM



In his speech preceding the Victory Day celebrations across Russia on Sunday, President Vladimir Putin continued to promote the idea that his troops in Ukraine are fighting “to liberate their native land from the Nazi filth with confidence that, as in 1945, victory will be ours.” His portrayal of Ukrainians as Nazis rings so hollow that propagandists on state television have been struggling to justify the so-called “special military operation.” The description itself was meant to portray a nearly painless blitzkrieg, akin to the annexation of Crimea. Instead, it has turned into an ongoing bloody massacre and a slew of crippling sanctions.

Russia was so unprepared for this turn of events, both militarily and economically, that even the most pro-Kremlin propagandists have been forced to acknowledge the grim reality of a pariah state fighting a war of aggression.

During Friday’s broadcast of state TV show The Evening With Vladimir Solovyov, military analyst Konstantin Sivkov argued that Russia’s “current economic market system is unfit to meet the needs of our Armed Forces and of the entire country under these conditions.” Instead, he pushed for what he described as “military socialism,” a set of wartime rules and regulations that would move all strategic resources–including land and factories–under the direct control of the government to better fund the war.

During the same show, host Vladimir Solovyov griped that Russia couldn’t compete with Ukraine’s seemingly endless supply of Turkish-made Bayraktar drones, which have been wreaking havoc on Russia’s troops and equipment. “They tell us from the frontlines: ‘Give us drones!’ People are crowdfunding crazy amounts of money. They bought up everything that was available in stores. Why can’t that junk be mass-produced in Russia?,” Solovyov fumed.

State Duma member Semyon Bagdasarov chimed in: “Everyone is ashamed to talk about this topic. Volunteers, like our mutual acquaintances... are buying it all and transporting it over there. It’s a crying shame!” Solovyov proceeded to angrily complain about the restrictions that complicate the delivery of such items to Russian troops in Ukraine, adding: “It’s easier to bring it in through the Ukrainian Customs in Lviv. They let in any weapons.”

Bagdasarov then resorted to blaming the West for the Kremlin’s humiliations, claiming that recent sanctions were designed to provoke a popular uprising, akin to the October revolution of 1917 or the 1991 Soviet coup d'état attempt, also known as the August Coup. To prevent the potential riots, Bagdasarov suggested the need for “purges” of current “management officials.” He claimed that Russia is in sore need for a figure like Lavrentiy Beria—chief of the Soviet secret police who was notorious for his serial rapes and bloody mass executions.

This attempts to whitewash odious figures of the past on Russian airwaves if nothing new., Shortly before Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in February, host of Vesti Nedeli Dmitry Kiselyov praised the likes of Joseph Stalin, Lavrentiy Beria, Julius and Ethel Rosenberg, among others for Russia’s nuclear capabilities.

During Friday’s live broadcast of 60 Minutes, retired Colonel Mikhail Khodaryonok made the stunning confession that even mass mobilization in Russia wouldn’t help alter the course of Putin’s stalled invasion of Ukraine. He admitted that Russia would be hard-pressed to replenish its mounting losses in Ukraine, and that sending masses to fight with outdated weapons would be counterproductive because Russia’s arsenal does not measure up to NATO’s top-notch weaponry.

“Let's imagine the drumroll, the sound of fanfare, and the mobilization is declared. How soon under this mobilization will we get the first fighter aviation regiment? We would get it by New Year's. We don't have the reserves, the pilots, or the planes so the mobilization would be of little help,” Khodaryonok said. “If tonight, we order new ships to be built, how soon will we get the first one? In two years! That's the deal with mobilization. If we set a goal of forming a new tank division, when would it be ready? I would say in at least 90 days. And it wouldn't be equipped with modern weaponry because we don't have modern weapons and equipment in our reserves.”

The retired colonel continued: “Sending people armed with weapons of yesteryear into a war of the 21st century to fight against global standard NATO weapons would not be the right thing to do. We need to replenish our losses, of course, but this should be done through industrial enterprises. Mobilization would not solve these issues."

In December of 2021, appearing on 60 Minutes, Khodaryonok flippantly said that Russia could destroy Ukraine in 11 minutes, but in the beginning of February—when Putin’s invasion seemed all but imminent—the colonel was much more clear-eyed. His sobering predictions, published in the newspaper Independent Military Observer, were remarkably accurate.

Khodaryonok contradicted many popular analysts, stating in part that “To assert that no one in Ukraine will defend the regime means, in practice, complete ignorance of the military-political situation and the mood of the broad masses of people in the neighboring state. Moreover, the degree of hatred (which, as you know, is the most effective fuel for armed struggle) in the neighboring republic in relation to Moscow is frankly underestimated. No one will meet the Russian army with bread, salt and flowers in Ukraine.”

Khodaryonok correctly predicted long and difficult battles, in addition to the extensive assistance the West would provide to Ukraine, writing in part: “There is no doubt that the United States and the countries of the North Atlantic Alliance will begin a kind of reincarnation of Lend-Lease, modeled after the Second World War.”

While open opposition to Putin’s war against Ukraine is outlawed, it’s clear that the Russian people are resisting in various unconventional ways. A series of fires have erupted at several military enlistment offices in recent days, as rumors of the impending mobilization unsettle potential conscripts.

Putin’s propagandists have apparently been enlisted to convince the public that the outcome of Russia’s invasion is a matter of life and death for all of its citizens. State TV pundit Karen Shakhnazarov, who previously pleaded with Putin to end the war as soon as possible, returned to national broadcasts after a temporary absence with a drastically different narrative last week.

During three separate broadcasts of The Evening With Vladimir Solovyov, Shakhnazarov claimed that Russians would find “no mercy” from their adversaries should the country lose the war. He threatened opponents of Putin’s invasion, predicting they would face a future of “concentration camps, re-education and mandatory sterilization” imposed as a “final solution” for the Russian people sought by Moscow’s enemies. While some Kremlin propagandists begrudgingly admit that Russia can’t afford to fight this war, the prevailing narrative force-fed by the state media is that Russia can’t afford to lose.


Source: https://www.yahoo.com/news/putin-puppets-admit-army-total-005502933.html
 
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The sinking of the Moskva is something that will be discussed in wartime legend for years to come. It's hard to say what the truth is or was in regards to the complete circumstances or the number of casualties. The article below is from the Ukrainian perspective. So you have to take it at face value with a dash of caution and skepticism. Whereas with Russian propaganda you have to take it with about 5 pounds of salt. After all, Ukraine says almost 30,000 Russians have been killed so far. And Russia says it's closer to 1,100. I'm much more willing to believe 23-30,000 rather than 1.1K.


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The New Voice of Ukraine


Details about the sinking of Russia’s Moskva flagship emerge

Sun, May 15, 2022, 9:49 AM


Two Ukrainian Neptune missiles struck the Moskva late on April 13. Next day, the Russian Defense Ministry said that the ship had sunk due to a fire and the detonation of ammunition on board.

In the intercept, a Russian sailor aboard the sinking Moskva missile cruiser can be heard reporting extensive damage to the ship and requesting crew extraction.

“Moskva-1 – two (hull) breaches, the propeller has stopped, (the ship) is going to capsize,” the Moskva crew member says.

“(There is) a breach below the waterline, the ship is listing by 30 degrees; we can’t sail to meet up with tugboats, urgent crew evacuation is underway.”

On April 16, Russia released a video allegedly featuring members of the Moskva’s crew rescued from the sinking ship. According to independent Russian news outlet The Insider, the video featured around 100 people. Radio Liberty later reported there was evidence the video may have been recorded before the ship sank.

According to the secretary of Ukraine’s National Security and Defense Council, Oleksii Danilov, the Russian navy managed to rescue 58 out of the Moskva’s 510 crew members.

The official Russian casualty figures include one dead and 27 MIA. Some media reports suggested that more than half of the cruiser’s crew were conscripts.


Source: https://www.yahoo.com/news/details-sinking-russia-moskva-flagship-134900744.html
 
I post the following as a matter of interest. It is impossible to verify but it does make sense.



Russia-Ukraine War: Russians begin to turn on President Vladimir Putin


Russian State TV has shown what it said were wounded Ukrainian fighters receiving treatment at a hospital in the Donetsk region. Source / AP

news.com.au
By Alexis Carey
From the start, Vladimir Putin's invasion of Ukraine has faced a string of humiliating setbacks – and as the war continues to stall, more and more Russians are turning on their leader.

In a nation where public defiance of the government is rare, and often results in harsh punishments, thousands of citizens took an unexpected stand against the February 24 invasion in the form of daily anti-war protests.

From that date until March 13, almost 15,000 were arrested, sparking reports of police brutality and even torture, with the government rolling out widespread censorship measures as a result.

But rather than be silenced, since then, a growing number of Russians have taken bold stands against the war.


news.com.au
Vladimir Putin survived an assassination attempt two months ago, a Ukrainian official has claimed.

Ukraine's Chief of Defence Intelligence Kyrylo Budanov told Pravda the attempt on the Russian President's life was "absolutely unsuccessful".
.
"He was even attacked in the line of, as they say, representatives of the Caucasus not so long ago," Budanov said.

"This is non-public information. Absolutely unsuccessful attempt, but it really took place… It was about two months ago.

"Once again, he was unsuccessful. There is no publicity about this event, but it took place."

The assassination attempt is said to have taken place in the early weeks of Russia's invasion of Ukraine, while Putin was on a trip.

More details are expected to be released soon.


One plot was foiled by Russian intelligence shortly before the 2012 presidential election in Russia.

Several men were arrested in the Ukrainian port city of Odesa after being tasked with killing Putin by Islamist Chechen rebels.


He faced a similar assassination attempt on the day of the 2008 Russian presidential election, with a Tajik sniper arrested hours before Putin was due to give a speech in Red Square in Moscow.

Suicide bombers are also reported to have considered an attack on Putin during a trip to the Iranian capital Tehran in 2007.

The Russian leader has also faced a series of rumours about his health in recent weeks.

Kremlin insiders have claimed that he may have cancer, which could explain his recent bloated appearance and erratic behaviour.

Last week it was reported that Putin had emergency surgery to drain fluid from his abdomen.

Intelligence sources have also claimed that he has blood cancer and is "seriously ill".

Russia analyst Alexey Muraviev has previously warned that Putin faces a potential coup from within his military and intelligence services.

Muraviev told Sky News Australia that the coup may come as they want to try to win the war – not to stop aggression in Ukraine.

He said: "I think that there have been tensions between Russia and the intelligence community and Russia's President Vladimir Putin.


"Because clearly, there's been a clear error of judgment that was made and it was probably driven by Putin himself about the situation in Ukraine.

"About the initial planning and the initial phase of the invasion where the Russian military naturally assume that they're going there as liberators rather than the invaders.

"I think that sort of false narrative was presented to them by the Supreme Commander in Chief, and when it fired back when the Russians began taking heavy casualties, Putin began quietly blaming the security services.

"Which I don't think went really well also because he's coming from within the security apparatus."



Australian National University visiting fellow and expert in communist and post-communist studies Dr Leonid Petrov said that such an operation was most likely to come from those closest to Putin – the security services.

"The closest to Putin is the so-called Federal Protective Service, which is deliberately designed to protect the President and his office. They are in close co-operation with the FSB [the successor to the KGB]," Petrov told news.com.au.

Noting that Putin seems to stand closely with women more frequently than with men, and citing the President's reputation as a "womaniser", Petrov suggested a hypothetical assassin may be a woman.


Flourish logoA Flourish data visualization
"I believe that if there is an assassination attempt, that might come from a female. Maybe a member of his family, his mistress, his daughter, his ex-wife – somebody who knows him and could actually get close to him," he said.

"The possibility [of assassination] is increasing."

Putin also recently ordered a thousand of his personal staff replaced out of fear for personal safety.
 
'Maximum decline': Russian forces in Ukraine set to be exhausted by January 2023
Analysis: There are signs Putin is reaching his limit, writes Jamie Seidel.
 
The New Voice of Ukraine
Military expert talks about heavy losses taken by Russia’s 35th Combined Arms Army
Wed, June 8, 2022, 10:58 AM
CIT analyst Kyrylo Mykhailov believes that in the area of Izyum are several thousand Russian military
CIT analyst Kyrylo Mykhailov believes that in the area of Izyum are several thousand Russian military
According to Mykhailov, the source of the recent reports came from a Russian blogger, who has spent eight years in the “army” of the so-called “Donetsk/Luhansk People’s Republics.”

“He quoted his sources that claimed the army had two brigades at the onset of the offensive,” Mykhailov explained.

Read also: Russian invaders launch assaults in Kharkiv Oblast, but are driven back

“As it stands, a mere 100-200 infantrymen remain in those brigades, though that doesn’t mean the whole army is gone – only the infantry of its brigades.”

He noted that a typical Russian brigade consists of two infantry battalions and one armored one, putting it at around 800 total combat troops - approximately 1,600 across the two brigades.

Read also: A whole Russian army has been destroyed at Izyum, Ukraine official reveals

“1,500-2,000 troops, bearing in mind that some of them would be conscripts, remaining at base or withdrawn, following recent scandals (of Russia deploying conscripts to fight in Ukraine),” the analyst added.

According to him, a couple thousand troops being reduced to a couple hundred signifies “extremely heavy losses,” although the 35th is but one of the four armies in Russia’s Eastern Military District.

“On top of that, Russian forces from the Western Military District are also deployed there – the 1st Tank Army,” Mykhailov pointed out.

“We’ve seen several T-80 tanks arriving there, which are very similar to the ones from this unit. Meaning, they have managed to replenish their armor reserves, if not manpower.”

He added that, according to Ukraine’s General Staff, there could be as many as 20 Russian battalion-tactical groups (BTGs) at Izyum, each comprised of 400-600 troops. The heavy losses they’ve sustained could only have been recouped with poorly-trained and barely combat-ready reinforcements.

Read also: Fear of counterattack is causing Russians to shell Sumy Oblast, says regional governor

“So, we’re talking about several thousand Russian troops deployed there, which remains a significant threat in the Donbas theater,” Mykhailov concluded.

Earlier, the U.S.-based Institute for the Study of War (ISW) reported that Russia’s 35th Combined Arms Army has been demolished at Izyum, mostly due to incompetent commanders.

According to ISW, the unit was left without adequate equipment and supplies, with heavy artillery lacking necessary and timely maintenance. A shortage of encrypted comms forced Russian commanders to communicate through messengers.

The defeat of the 35th army was also reported on by the President’s Chief-of-Staff, Andriy Yermak.
 
Military expert talks about heavy losses taken by Russia’s 35th Combined Arms Army
 
General Staff: Entire Russian unit refuses to take part in hostilities after suffering losses in Kharkiv Oblast
 
I'm happy to hear of Russian soldiers bemoaning their situations and the low morale. But unfortunately Russia still occupies a significant chunk of Ukrainian territory. We have to keep arming and supplying Ukraine if it is ever to regain some semblence of a country that isn't a vassal state to Russia. The sanctions have been mitigated to some extent (for now at least) by the huge upswing in oil prices. Russia's coffers are benefitting greatly by the added extra revenue from oil sales. Unless or until international oil prices come back down, Russia can keep financing this war. There's no doubt that the sanctions so far have hurt and do hurt.

On the other hand there may be more intense financial pain that the governemnt is hiding from citizens for now. The Soviet Union kept up the facade for years that while their economy was struggling with the arms race, and all of their inefficient agricultural and other communist style practices, that they were still reasonably financially sound. By the time of the collapse of the Soviet Union it became clear to all that the country had really been bankrupt for a long time prior. They were somehow able for a good while to paper over, lie to international financial agencies, fudge numbers, and keep up the pretense of still having a superpower economy, until the sheer weight of the true debt and inevitable bankruptcy came crashing down upon them.

The Russian economy may truly be hurting much more than they are saying or letting on for now. It may actually be another Soviet-style bluff and another house of cards ready to come crashing down within months or a year. But time will tell.
 
Business Insider


Putin is 'preparing to starve much of the developing world' in order to win Russia's war in Ukraine, Yale historian says

Kelsey Vlamis

Sun, June 12, 2022, 1:15 AM


Ukrainian officials have accused Russia of blocking millions of tons of grain exports.

Yale historian Timothy Snyder said Putin plans to starve places in Asia and Africa to win the war.

"When the food riots begin, and as starvation spreads, Russian propaganda will blame Ukraine," he said.

Yale historian Timothy Snyder said Russian President Vladimir Putin plans to starve some countries as part of his efforts in Ukraine.

Snyder published a lengthy Twitter thread Saturday explaining how he believes Putin is using food insecurity to his advantage and called it the "latest chapter of hunger politics."

"Russia has a hunger plan. Vladimir Putin is preparing to starve much of the developing world as the next stage in his war in Europe," Snyder, a professor at Yale University and expert on authoritarianism, began, noting the importance of Ukraine's food exports to the global food supply.

The area around the Black Sea, including Ukraine and Russia, has been referred to as the "world's breadbasket" due to its fertile soil and high rates of grain production. Collectively, the two countries account for 30% of the global wheat exports while Ukraine produces about 12%.

Experts previously told Insider that cutting off those exports could have massive implications for countries like Yemen, which previously got nearly a quarter of its wheat imports from Ukraine.

Ukraine has accused Russia of blocking millions of tons of grain exports from leaving its ports, a charge the Kremlin has denied.

"If the Russian blockade continues, tens of millions of tons of food will rot in silos, and tens of millions of people in Africa and Asia will starve," Snyder said.

The historian said he believed Putin's "hunger plan" had three main objectives. First, to cut off Ukraine's exports in an attempt to destroy its statehood. Second, to create instability in Europe by producing refugees from areas that rely on Ukraine's food, like North Africa and the Middle East.

Lastly, he said Putin wanted to use mass starvation as a "backdrop for a propaganda contest."

"When the food riots begin, and as starvation spreads, Russian propaganda will blame Ukraine, and call for Russia's territorial gains in Ukraine to be recognized, and for all sanctions to be lifted," Snyder said.

The historian also said both Joseph Stalin, the leader of the Soviet Union, and Adolf Hitler had sought to control Ukraine's food supply, but that Putin's plan was "a new level of colonialism."

"Russia is planning to starve Asians and Africans in order to win its war in Europe," he said.

For his part, Putin has sought to blame global food supply issues on the West and pushed for sanctions on Russia to be lifted, while Britain has accused him of "trying to hold the world to ransom" with food.

The war in Ukraine has waged on since Russia invaded on February 24. Russian forces refocused on the eastern Donbas region after failing to capture the capital of Kyiv, but Ukrainian officials said this week the country is in need of more weapons.


Source: https://www.yahoo.com/news/putin-preparing-starve-much-developing-051547728.html
 
Unfortunately Putin is in it till his end.

While there has been chatter abouyt him having severe health problems, he still seems to be on the way to of fulfilling the old adagfee about the, "Longevity of the tyrants". He'll die (unfortunately probably very old) before he ever willingly steps down and cedes power. Power is everything to him.
 
Least we forget the new war crime he whose name must not be mentioned did yesterday bombing a shopping center & whose result lead to Finland & Sweden joining NATO and Ukraine asking to be let in as well.
 
'Losing control': Putin's grip on power 'weakening'
Putin's grip on power and his position is increasingly under threat, top historian says.




NZ Herald
By Sam Clench & NZ Herald
53
Vladimir Putin's grip on power is "weakening" and other political figures in the country are preparing for a "struggle" in the wake of his fall, a leading historian has suggested.

Timothy Snyder, a Professor of History at Yale University and author of the book On Tyranny, is an expert in the modern history of central and eastern Europe.

He firmly believes the Russian President's authority is eroding thanks to the Russian military's mounting losses on the battlefield in Ukraine.

Taking to social media, Snyder declared that "Putin's rule is weakening", highlighting one key move that proves he's losing his grip on power.


"We now regularly hear from people aside from Putin – for example, former prime minister and president Dmitry Medvedev – about the meaning of the war, the catastrophic consequences that await Ukraine and the West, and so forth. This is a sign Putin is losing control.

"Usually the news coverage of such pronouncements focuses on their content. It is tempting to get caught up in the Russian fear propaganda.

"But the real story is that people aside from Putin now feel authorised to make such proclamations. Before the war there was less of this."

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He highlighted that while "doom propaganda" showed loyalty to Putin, it could be interpreted as a "power struggle" for when he eventually falls.

"If Russia loses the war, the people saying radical things now will have protected themselves. For my part, I tend to see the drastic proclamations as evidence that important Russians think Russia is losing," he said.



"I'm not convinced Medvedev, who for years was seen as the liberal alternative to Putin, believes the anti-Semitic, anti-Polish, anti-Western hate speech he publishes. He is creating a profile that might be useful later.

"In Ukraine, Kadyrov's men [Chechnya leader] have arranged matters so as not to have taken very many casualties. From the perspective of his own interests, this makes sense. They are available for a further power struggle in a post-Putin Russia.

"Kadyrov now proposes that Russia locate air defence systems in Chechnya. His justification is that Ukraine might attack Chechnya, which is not credible.

"It sounds more like he is preparing for a post-Putin Russia in which Chechnya would claim independence."

Snyder said another sign Putin's "political strength" could be weakening is the army's perceived failures in Ukraine.

The army is a key source of Putin's appearance and if the illusion of "invincibility" is shattered, his personal image will take a massive hit.

"Putin can survive the army not being strong. But at a certain point, not being strong becomes not looking strong," he said.

"The Russian army is taking horrible losses in men, which suggests the next sign of Putin's weakness. The Russian state can mobilise its population for war only at the level of emotions, not bodies.
Is Putin "lost in the fog" of a war he started?
Is Putin "lost in the fog" of a war he started?

"Russian regions are now working hard to find highly paid 'volunteers' who are sent to die with little training. Putin is clearly afraid a general mobilisation would undo his popularity and bring down his regime. In this sense he is weak.

"Putin has soft support for the war, so long as it is a television show, but cannot count on Russians to risk their actual bodies.

"The equilibrium that keeps Putin in power – mastery over rivals, support in the population, integrity of the army – is challenged by the realities of an unpredictable, costly war. Putin has been good at keeping us all in a fog. But now he himself seems lost in the fog of war."

One issue Putin finds himself in, says Snyder, is the Russian leader now has no clear escape route.

"The trap presented to him by rivals, by the public, by the army looks like this: we will all agree with you that we are winning the war, and we will all blame you if/when we lose it," the historian said.



"Putin's gamble, as ever, is that the West will feel the pain faster than he will. This is how his foreign policy works – generate losses for everyone, including Russia, in the hope that the other side will concede first.

"Putin has seemed like a good gambler in the past. A good gambler, though, knows when to fold."
 
Thanks for sharing that Br.

It's a lot of conjecture and hypotheticals for now. Obviously I hope Russia loses the war in whatever form a defeat is played out. Who's to say how much Ukrainian territory might be left under Russian control when the dust settles.

Dmitry Medvedev also made a very purposely cryptic and threatening statement about 2 weeks ago saying along the lines of, Any attack on Crimea would be Red Line for Russia and could instigate much harsher warfare than seen thus far from the Russian side. It sounded scary at first glance because truly Russia can go all scorched earth on Ukraine if it wants to. But when I considered his threat and really thought it through...I actually saw it as a sign of weakness and Russian fear. And they should be scared.

If or when the Ukrainians gain the upper hand... Which is not a sure thing of course by any means. But if they do... They are not likely going to settle for just a restoration of the 2014 borders. The borders that left Russia illegally occupying all of Crimea and a large chunk in the east. Ukraine still wants Crimea back too. The fact that Medvedev came out and made that threat shows that he believes and he's afraid...that the Ukrainans still see Crimea itself as fair game in this war, for liberation and re-conquest. Russia wants Ukraine to see the 2014 borders of Crimea as sacred Russian territory. But they don't. haha And because of the Budapest Memorandum, they don't have to.
 
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