North Korea

[joninliverton]

I'm quite surprised that no one has started a thread on the goings on on the Korean peninsular. Here is a clip from tonights BBC News - it seems the Americans are at last taking the situation quite seriously.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-22021832

Not sure how much coverage this has had in the USA but the BBC has been covering it nearly as much as our weather.

 

[KellyG]

Dear Jon, It is all over the news and the morning talk shows have it for the first half hour consistently. That little man is annoying

 

[tampa24]

I have actually been following the story pretty closely. I waver between being concerned and then not wanting to give the little man the attention he so voraciously craves for himself, without deserving any of it. (If that makes sense) He's a petty dictator of a minuscule impoverished third world country with delusions of grandeur. He starves his own people to maintain a massive military that the country doesn't need. All the while he thinks that as part of a communist dynasty that he 's descended from gods and is therefore semi-divine in his own right.

 

[keylow365]

He wants attention but Pyongyang is not crazy any nuclear attack on the US would result in a quick and devastating military response by the US the war would be over before ground troops could arrive.

 

[stowe1]

He wants attention but Pyongyang is not crazy any nuclear attack on the US would result in a quick and devastating military response by the US the war would be over before ground troops could arrive.

You're right keylow;and more importantly, China knows this. It is massing troops on its border with North Korea and if that little man gets too far gone, China will do something about it. I just hope that we don't do what we've done before during the last 25 years and that is believe NK"s promises of nuclear talks in exchange for food and other aid and once NK gets it they renege on the talks.


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[bobbity]

He wants attention but Pyongyang is not crazy any nuclear attack on the US would result in a quick and devastating military response by the US the war would be over before ground troops could arrive.

History shows that these kinds of wars do NOT end quickly. Remember when we invaded Afghanistan and everyone thought the was would be over in 6 months, tops? Well, that six months turned into eleven years. America just can not afford another war, not without completely bankrupting ourselves. But neither can we ignore a nuclear attack. Either way, we're screwed, so bring it on Kimmie Jr.

 

[joninliverton]

History shows that these kinds of wars do NOT end quickly. Remember when we invaded Afghanistan and everyone thought the was would be over in 6 months, tops? Well, that six months turned into eleven years. America just can not afford another war, not without completely bankrupting ourselves. But neither can we ignore a nuclear attack. Either way, we're screwed, so bring it on Kimmie Jr.

You failed to mention Vietnam too. I am quite shocked at some blase comments made so far by my American friends. With a nutter in charge as that little nerd, they are the most dangerous people to deal with. I hadn't heard of China massing troops on it's border with North Korea but I guess it is in China's interest not to upset the USA, especially with so many deals and contracts currently with the West.

Interestingly, the BBC news also had interviews with South Koreans who were equally not worried about the North. They just said they've been threatening for years, so we're used to it.

 

[ChristopherRobin]

The North Koreans are being held captive, and not just the ones in concentration camps. Somebody should should just shoot that fat slob.

 

[tampa24]

Interestingly, the BBC news also had interviews with South Koreans who were equally not worried about the North. They just said they've been threatening for years, so we're used to it.

That's part of the reason for our relative complacency Jon. Ever since the 90's NK has been doing this bit of trying to ratchet up tensions just for the point of getting world attention. That's usually because they want economic aid ($$$) to prop up their teetering Stalinist monarchy. Their modus operandi goes like this: They threaten South Korea and its allies with military strikes and all-out war. They threaten to launch missile tests. They threaten to expand their nuclear weapons program. The world falls for their scare tactics and goes to the negotiating table with them. The U.S., South Korea and sometimes even Japan offer them several tons of food and highly discounted heating oil and fuel. All of this is with written understanding that they'll agree to stop their nuclear weapons testing and uranium enrichment and stop making military threats against their neighbors.

Of course once they get the economic aid and all the food has been delivered, then they break every agreement that they signed on to in order to get the aid in the first place. They have no shame in abrogating every international agreement they sign in exchange for foreign aid. Like a little kid throwing a fake temper tantrum to try to manipulate the grown-ups in the room...NK wants some attention again. (i.e. hard currency money and credit, food aid, oil and heating oil from the west...along with the dropping of U.N sanctions against it)

Understandably the West has grown weary of this farce. We've been suckered too many times by them. We are not in a hurry to offer them money, food aid, oil, the lifting of sanctions, etc, just so that 2-3 years down the road, once all their goodies have been delivered...they go back to launching missiles, expanding their nuclear weapons program, and once again threatening South Korea with "annihilation". We've read this book before. We know how it ends. We're determined this time not to give in to their threats. Let them have their little temper tantrum and let the U.N sanctions continue for now.

 

[joninliverton]

I hope you're right Tampa.

 

[tampa24]

I hope you're right Tampa.

Well I feel that I'm right about the historical context in which this is all taking place. The real question that I don't have the answer to is if Li'l Kim will take things too far and actually start an outbreak of hostilities. The dangers are quite real. This time around though the North Koreans realize that the West is not falling for the usual round of sabre rattling. So they are having to take the brinkmanship to a much higher level than in the past...still in the hopes that we'll come running to offer them money and food if they'll promise to stop.

 

[Blue011]

Kim Jong-un and North Korea

From what I read, the titular head of government, Kim Jong-un, really does not call the shots personally. He is the figurehead for the current system of government which is more of a oligarchy, Korean style. There is a system based upon family relationships and incumbent government leaders (Army, Party and Industry) which really run the show in a rough totalitarian way. There is no single power broker, from the analysis that I have seen; but, rule happens generally through consensus. These are all people who have a huge stake in seeing the world go on without being blown up.

The oligarchs (like the oligarchs in Russia and China) like their amenities. They like to eat and drink well and many educate their children outside of North Korea (Europe seems to be a favorite spot for the little comrades education).

The real danger that exists is one of miscalculation by either party (North Korea vs. South Korea and her allies). China still views the North as client state and if push would come to shove, would not want to see North Korea obliterated like Saddam Hussein. My suspicion is China would move to stop a U.S./South Korea invasion of the north.

The reason the North Koreans are so tied to their nukes is that history tells them that without such a strategic threat; a larger power may very well attack them.

I really do not think the North Korean elites want to threaten their version of socialist heaven (although you really have to wonder if anyone their still believes in the political theology pushed by the current North Korean regime.)

As long as no one miscalculates, I think the likelihood of war is low. It is simply not in anyone's long or short term interests.

But, you can never discount what a mistake, miscalculation or misread of the other power's intentions can do.

I hope this analysis is accurate.

 

[keylow365]

Bobbity this is not Afghanistan only people not in the military assumed it would be over in 6 months. The Taliban and Al-Qaeda are terrorist guerilla groups they are not armies like Iraq the thing that screwed us in Iraq after Saddam's regime fell was the terrorists groups moved in and the Iraq people infighting. North Korea would be different with South Korea taking over and the military already has bases there. This should totally be a UN war if it happens so we do not end up fighting on two fronts again.

 

[joninliverton]

Bobbity this is not Afghanistan only people not in the military assumed it would be over in 6 months. The Taliban and Al-Qaeda are terrorist guerilla groups they are not armies like Iraq the thing that screwed us in Iraq after Saddam's regime fell was the terrorists groups moved in and the Iraq people infighting. North Korea would be different with South Korea taking over and the military already has bases there. This should totally be a UN war if it happens so we do not end up fighting on two fronts again.

It may not be Afghanistan Jay but it could well be another Vietnam. The North Koreans have got a very large armed forces and I would suspect they have underground tunnels as the did the Vietnamese. I appreciate you are a member of the US armed forces and know a lot more than me mate. I'm just reading the history books.

 

[keylow365]

Thanks Jon but we don't fight like that anymore we overwhelm enemies with airstrikes and missle and field artillery strikes. We do not just send in ground forces and the drone planes we use now make no sound and we can track an enemy. It is pretty amazing to see in action it looks like the fourth of July.

 

[joninliverton]

Thanks Jon but we don't fight like that anymore we overwhelm enemies with airstrikes and missle and field artillery strikes. We do not just send in ground forces and the drone planes we use now make no sound and we can track an enemy. It is pretty amazing to see in action it looks like the fourth of July.

Shhh dude, don't be giving any of those combat secrets away to the north koreans. You never know, there may be a NK member in the house.

 

[keylow365]

Lol I do enjoy you Jon between you and Ms K there is never a dull moment.

 

[tampa24]

The trick is that the Chinese would likely intervene if we launched a ground war against NK.

 

[keylow365]

I don't know if China will help North Korea with all the trouble they are causing. And if the UN chiefs to go to war would China stand in the way.

 

[tampa24]

And if the UN chiefs to go to war would China stand in the way.

Well they did in 1950 during the Korean War. That war was called a U.N. "police action" and had the approval of the U.N. Security Council. That didn't stop the Chinese from pouring over the northern border of Korea when MacArthur had pretty much defeated the NK army. Regardless though, if NK felt its existence was threatened they would likely launch nuclear weapons. So this would not be a conventional war. That's why it's in everyone's interest not to let this become a war.