FYI regarding Hurricane Irma. September 3, 2017.

[Tyler36]

To all my friends along the East Coast (especially in Florida),it is never too early to prepare and monitor this.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/

 

[tampa24]

Thanks Tyler!

I can't say I'm not look looking over my shoulder right now. Earlier in the week the hope was that it would turn quickly north and out to sea. As it gets closer to the Caribbean the forecasts are looking increasingly worse for the islands down there, as well as for Florida and the southeastern U.S. A few says ago on The Weather Channel they showed 2 different computer forecast models for Irma. The American one showed it eventually heading due north pretty well short of Florida and spinning itself out harmlessly at sea. The European forecast model showed the center of Irma passing through the Straits of Florida just above Cuba and bound for the Gulf of Mexico. At this point at least the European model seems to be more accurate. Time will tell.

 

[Bartirah]

That's so scary!!!

Does it always happen this time of the year or is it totally random? I mean, I know it's not usual, but the increased risk of hurricanes is bigger at this time of year or is it a constant danger?

 

[tampa24]

September is usually the peak of the hurricane season here in the Northern Hemisphere. Hurricane season runs from June 1st to November 30th. The cooler waters of the ocean usually generate weaker tropical systems at the very beginning and very end of the season. August and September tend to be some of the worst months for hurricane development because the ocean temperatures are at their warmest and can generate the strongest and most intense storms.

 

[mikeyank]

Tampa is correct Bart and while Florida and the southern part of this country, often bares the brunt of the hurricanes, back in 2012, "Super Storm Sandy" hit New York City very hard and that was in late October, so based on past seasons, hurricane season still has about a month to go.

 

[kingvalley]

The world's weather is so unpredictable and terrifying these days. Every year we see the hurricane damage in the US and wonder how anyone can live peacefully in those prone areas, wondering whether it will be their turn or not. Down here it used to just be bush fires we had to contend with - now we also have freak storms and massive floods. Batten down Tampa - we can't have you offline and not posting

 

[tampa24]

The world's weather is so unpredictable and terrifying these days. Every year we see the hurricane damage in the US and wonder how anyone can live peacefully in those prone areas, wondering whether it will be their turn or not. Down here it used to just be bush fires we had to contend with - now we also have freak storms and massive floods. Batten down Tampa - we can't have you offline and not posting

Thanks Kingvally.

 

[Tyler36]

For those that are being affected by Irma, we found this website to be of extreme value to us here in Texas during Harvey. Levi is a Professor Of Tropical Meteorology at Florida State University. Also, the NHC map on the opening comment is a hotlink and updates when the NHC issues new information.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/about/

AboutCurriculum Vitae

---

This website's primary purpose is to be a home for Atlantic tropical forecast discussions offered by myself (Levi Cowan) and various projects I am developing related to tropical meteorology. My forecasts do not represent the prognostications of any government office. Please visit the National Hurricane Center for official information, some of which can be found on the current storm information page.
I have been tracking tropical cyclones closely since 2002, and am currently a graduate meteorology student at Florida State University. My curriculum vitae is available.
Contact Information:Questions, comments, and bug reports may be directed to me via email at [email protected]
Best wishes to all of my forum friends living in the Florida and general SE part of the US.

Tyler

 

[louis33705]

As a Native Floridian, I have been through all the hurricanes that have passed through and by this State. I am ready as I always am year round. I have preparations in place for evacuation if need be. I have plenty of supplies and only have to worry about heavy winds and rain. I live in an area that is 42 feet above sea level so flooding is not an immediate threat. I went to the supermarket today and I had to park in the annex lot since the main lot was so full. Gas stations had lines of cars waiting to get filled up. All that is fine, because WE prepare early and do not wait for the last minute. I have plenty of water, supplies, food, camping equipment and two trucks full of gas. It's all good.

 

[Tyler36]

As a Native Floridian, I have been through all the hurricanes that have passed through and by this State. I am ready as I always am year round. I have preparations in place for evacuation if need be. I have plenty of supplies and only have to worry about heavy winds and rain. I live in an area that is 42 feet above sea level so flooding is not an immediate threat. I went to the supermarket today and I had to park in the annex lot since the main lot was so full. Gas stations had lines of cars waiting to get filled up. All that is fine, because WE prepare early and do not wait for the last minute. I have plenty of water, supplies, food, camping equipment and two trucks full of gas. It's all good.

I have a friend who has interests in the keys. He started preparing his property last week. They finalized everything Sunday and are in route to his sisters. Glad to hear you are prepared Louis. Thanks for sharing your update and please stay safe. After reading your status, I am sure it is safe to say that you will.

 

[tampa24]

Thanks for those links Tyler.

I am absolutely exhausted today. I had friends flying into town today from up North. Not a great time for a visit to coastal Florida. haha So I made a trip to Tampa International Airport today. While I always prepare in advance for hurricane season, I also find myself trying to stock up on just a little bit more as a storm nears our area. haha This Tuesday morning the worst of the storm was still about 4-5 days away from us in the Tampa Bay region. Yet I already noticed the sense of panic in the air. Many people are not taking chances and waiting until Thursday or Friday to get ready. The grocery stores are mobbed. And I'm sure they will only be worse on Wednesday, Thursday, Friday if the currently forecasted track of the storm holds. I always keep several cases of water on hand in the summer. But when I went to try to get 2 or 3 more cases just for insurance and peace of mind, I found that was no water to be had at any stores around me.

I stopped by several major grocery stores and found no water except very briefly at a Walmart supercenter where they had been out of water the whole time I had been there. Then suddenly people dutifully lined up their carts in anticipation like The Second Coming when word got out that a small delivery of water had just arrived by truck in the back of the store. When they brought it out they limited it to 2 cases per person and the employees themselves placed it in your cart. I got my two cases and only about three more people in the long line behind me were able to get what was left. Many stores say they will get more water in tomorrow. Whether it's enough to meet the need...who knows?

Schools in the Florida Keys are already closed so families can evacuate northward. I'm sure that all over the state there are calls being sent out for emergency shipments of water and gasoline, as well as extra basic food supplies.

I thought I would get a head start and be proactive by filling my gas tank tonight in order to avoid the crowds later. HA! When I got to my preferred gas station at 9:30 pm each lane had lines 2-4 cars deep waiting on the next pump to open up. To make the line worse, there are two entrances to the station. So there were two lines formed on each side of every two pump lane. Somehow I managed! lol People were patient. Tempers didn't flare. That's an important benefit to not waiting until a storm is one or two days away. lol People don't panic or get obnoxiously rude and selfish when they know they still have some time to spare.

 

[Tyler36]

You are more than welcome Tampa. Trust me, I understand the anxs that you are experiencing about now. I am glad you got your water. Here is a tip. Drink your daily needs from that supply, then use you own tap and refill the containers. If you have other empty plastic containers around, fill them up with additional water from your own tap. It is amazing about the human spirit during these times. On a positive note, it looks like the system is moving fairly quickly and those extreme winds are confined to a small area around the center. I understand, too, about the exhaustion. I think we finally got to process our own situation before we head back to the workplace and get back to normal. Get some rest, and try to turn off the media. We found that the constant barrage of panic in their voices made it worse for us. We are thinking about you guys. You are not alone in this. Stay safe Tampa!

 

[louis33705]

Still bad news for Florida but somewhat better news for Tampa and me. The latest tracking prediction has Irma going up the East Coast of Florida. While we will not get the brunt of the storm we will definitely feels the effects of it. It was reported that the storm extends 150 miles from the center. Florida is approximately 144 miles in width so even if the Eye is on the East coast, we here on the West side will be in the outer bands. They compared Irma and said it was currently the size of the State of Texas, wider than Florida is long.

I went to school with a girl by the name of Irma and she was a pain in the ass. It seems Hurricane Irma will also be a pain in the ass to all those in her path.

 

[Tyler36]

Still bad news for Florida but somewhat better news for Tampa and me. The latest tracking prediction has Irma going up the East Coast of Florida. While we will not get the brunt of the storm we will definitely feels the effects of it. It was reported that the storm extends 150 miles from the center. Florida is approximately 144 miles in width so even if the Eye is on the East coast, we here on the West side will be in the outer bands. They compared Irma and said it was currently the size of the State of Texas, wider than Florida is long.

I went to school with a girl by the name of Irma and she was a pain in the ass. It seems Hurricane Irma will also be a pain in the ass to all those in her path.

As of the latest forecast, my friend who has interests in the Keys is definitely breathing easier. No hit on any state is the desirable outcome, however, the latest track is better than the one 12 hours ago.

Louis, speaking of names, I had a punk cousin named Harvey. Harvey was like 5-6 years younger than the rest of us and followed us everywhere.
When we would tell him to get lost and go hang out with the other ones he would go running back to the adults making up crap and getting us in trouble. He was always holding us hostage that he was going to rat on us if we didn't let him hang out. One time I had enough. Harvey started with the BS that he was going to tell the big guys what we were doing. I turned around and pushed him...Harvey landing in some hedges with some scratches. Most of us would have shook it off. Harvey whipped up some hysterics and I got a butt whoopin! It was worth it though. He never messed with me again. Glad that name has been retired! Sounds like the same should be for Irma as well.

 

[louis33705]

We are now in that wait and see mode. I have completed all my preparations and waiting to just put them into action.

It is beautiful outside. The sun is shining, sky is blue and a soft breeze blowing. The temperature is a comfortable 90 F. I know 90 may sound hot to some but in Florida it is the sea breeze that keeps it from being stifling. This is the "calm before the storm" period.

I got a call from the Rehab Center yesterday. They were informing the families of all the residents of their plans for the storm. I was told that as the storm neared our area, they would go into lock down. Storm doors and shutters would be activated. Medical personnel would be present. Medications, food, water, etc were all stocked up. In the rare event the Center had to be evacuated, those plans were already in place. I joked with them and said, "Can I come? Can I come? I'll bring plenty of bread, peanut butter and jelly, and make sandwiches for everyone. She laughed and said they had plenty of PB & J.

I usually pay all my bills online on the 10th of the month. Since Irma will be passing through here on Sunday the 10th I'll take care of that task either today or tomorrow. I don't want to risk the loss of power or internet connection and then I'll be SOL (shit outta luck).

Gotta keep humor in my life right now.

BBL,
Louis

 

[louis33705]

To clarify why I mentioned the Rehab Center, I'll explain and keep it short. Linda is my ex-wife. We have always had a special relationship since our divorce. When she became disabled I had her move in next door to me so I could assist her in her daily tasks. This past June, Linda fell down and fractured her femur. She had surgery and three rods inserted in her leg. She has been in a Rehab Center since. Doctors told her she could probably go home in about six weeks. While she has been there I have tended to her apartment, pets and special needs such as bringing her snacks, personal items and doing her laundry.

 

[Tyler36]

I usually pay all my bills online on the 10th of the month. Since Irma will be passing through here on Sunday the 10th I'll take care of that task either today or tomorrow. I don't want to risk the loss of power or internet connection and then I'll be SOL (shit outta luck).

Gotta keep humor in my life right now.

BBL,
Louis

Louis,

Sometimes it takes some sort of catastrophe to make us humans stop for a minute and take a personal inventory. With my own experiences here with Harvey, we crossed those similar paths. It is amazing how dependent we are in "staying plugged in" and not just for the social needs. 98 percent of everything requires a valid e-mail, a smart phone, and a basic notebook or laptop. My grandmother, who passed away 2 years ago, still insisted on everything paper, even though she was internet savvy. We were very fortunate that all the local utilities and financial institutions waived due dates and the likes because of the situation. However, I know they appreciated customers like yourself that had a plan, were organized, and stepped up to the plate.

I wanted to add, from reading your comment here, you sound like a wonderful, extremely intelligent, and caring man. Any who know you personally are honored I am sure. Thank you for sharing your story regarding your ex-wife. She is blessed.

Please stay safe during these next few days.

Tyler

 

[louis33705]

Latest prediction shows Irma shifting a little more to the West. That is not good. The true story will be told more on Saturday morning. About an hour ago a voluntary evacuation was issued for the County I live in. This was for residents west of U.S. 19. I am on the East side. Nuclear plants are currently being shut down.

 

[louis33705]

I was on the phone with Linda about 20 minutes ago asking her what she wanted me to bring her tonight. As we were talking someone walked into her room and told her they were getting ready to evacuate the Center. They started packing her stuff and said all residents were being taken to Brooksville. Everything is going at urgent speed around here now in wake of the storm. The reason for the evacuation is due to the storm surge that threatens that area. The Center is on lower ground than I am. Jr. has been working all day securing things around the property and moving his cars to a more secure place. My trailer is surrounded by three oak trees and my truck sits under one of them. I will also move my truck and park it next to Linda's since there are no trees there. The worse that could happen to me would be if a tree fell on my trailer. Thank God I was given the insight to insure my trailer when I bought it which also covers natural disasters. I plan to take pictures of the outside of the trailer and all my personal belongings inside as suggested for insurance purposes.

Please send your good thoughts to us. Latest report is that the eye will be passing closer to me than what was predicted this morning.

 

[Tyler36]

Please send your good thoughts to us. Latest report is that the eye will be passing closer to me than what was predicted this morning.

I hope it doesn't shift any further West, as it would make the situation much worse. It would be even more tragic if the eye had a source to water. As I have said before, your experience has taught you the value of being prepared. I hope Tampa is finding his way, too. I happened to check the latest model run and the GFS 18z is loading up now. It is at the 60 hour mark. The image below is the prediction of Irma's location this time Sunday.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/ana...frzn&runtime=2017090818&fh=48&xpos=0&ypos=100

Perhaps by the time you see this, the complete database of the 18z will have downloaded. The link is above.

Continued thoughts for your safety and to all the great people of Florida as well. My friend Thomas from Key West, has made it safely to his sisters.

All my best to you and to all of the great people of Florida over the next 5 days. After that, you will step back, process, perhaps take a breather, and then go from there. It will truly be a "one minute, one hour, one day, and weeks" type of an event.

Take Care Louis!