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Who/What is to blame for the financial meltdown of 2008?

Thomas,

Thanks for posting. Thomas, I am not a foe of capitalism. I am probably more in your camp than the other. There has always been a struggle between capital and labor. I was just pointing out that capital has been winning for the last 30 years. Globalization has put tremendous pressure on labor here in the US.

As for the second part of your post, you probably have a lot of people who would agree with you. If you want to gamble big time, don't ask me to bail your ass out if you lose. It appears that the powers that be weren't willing to see where that might lead.

Tim
 
Here is a very macro economic look at the crisis. It comes from Branko Milanovik (The Haves and the Have Nots).

In the US the top 1% of the population doubled its share of the national income. It went from 8% in the mid-1970s to about 16% in the early 2000s. A similar situation existed just prior to the crash of 1929.

The real cause of the crisis lies in huge inequalities in income distribution that generated much larger investible funds than could be profitably employed. The political problem of insufficent economic growth of the middle class was then "solved" by opening the floodgates of cheap credit. And the opening of the credit floodgates, to placate the middle class, was needed because in a democratic system, an excessively unequal model of development cannot coexist with political stability.

Interesting.

Tim
 
First off, if there was falsifing of documents, whoever did it should be in jail and if it was condoned by the corporation, then fine them, through the CEO in jail, have a team of IRS audits set up camp for years to terrorize them! And so when the government (think community reinvestment act) says a bank must make subprime loans to low income people, or, you won't be able to merge or aquire another company, or expand in the market place, that had no bearing on banks making these loans. And let now forget Fannie and Freddie. They garanteed these loans. So, let's take the free market out by not having any risk to your loans. That won't change a corporations behavior. And when the banks fail, they should have. instead of spending $800B in bail out. They should have failed!

Some lower level people in some companies did go to jail but the fact is that the people who made the policies in those companies which mandated or rewarded the falsifying of documents typically were not since they were insulated from the wrongdoing.

Subprime does not mean that it will automatically fail. Subprime merely means it is not an "A paper" loan, that is a high FICO score. There can be many reasons for a low FICO score including a person relatively new to the credit market, a person who has had financial issues in the past due to illness, unemployment, among other reasons, excessive debt or lack of solid security. Everyone wants the "A paper" loans because they are safer but they also are lower profit makers. Subprime loans carry higher interest and fees and so have the potential for larger pay offs but with an attendant higher risk. The fact this exists is not the problem because when these loans are sold, if the purchaser knows what they are getting then they are taking on a risk they know about in exchange for the potential of a higher pay off down the road. The problem in the recent collapse was that subprime mortgages were packaged in creative ways which did not disclose to the buyers exactly what it was they were buying.

Subprime and regular mortgages which were traditionally isolated from, and sold in a separate market from prime loans were bundled together. These 'bundles' of mixed mortgages were sold as asset-backed securities so the 'probable' rate of return looked superb and the loans were secured against saleable real-estate, and so, theoretically 'could not fail'. Many of these mortgages had a low interest for the first year, and poorer buyers were able to refinance regularly at first, but as borrowers began to default in larger numbers. the inflated house-price bubble burst, property valuations plummeted and the real rate of return on investment could not be estimated, confidence in these instruments collapsed, and all were considered to be almost worthless assets, regardless of their actual composition or performance.

So as I said there are a number of problems which existed.

1. People who should not have received loans did via lenders using "creative" accounting methods to make income and assets appear to qualify. Misrepresentations were made to borrowers as to their ability to qualify as well as to refinance later. People who are less than sophisticated in financial affairs of this type relied on those representations.

Stop and think for a moment. How many have ever bought real property? Remember the paperwork you had to sign? The stack is immense, many inches high. How many of you read every word on every page and understood it? How many of you relied on what your real estate agent or attorney told you about what the documents said?

2. Lenders and at least some purchasers willingly engaged in a delusional scenario in which property values would only increase and never decrease which anyone with any experience in financial markets, knows is patently false.

3. Politicians on both sides of the aisle cooperated by removing or reducing financial market regulation and oversight on these markets allowing people to do as they wished without having to worry about getting caught.

4. Huge amounts of money were being made, on paper at least, and this fact was regularly pushed by the media and companies selling the bundled loans, which encouraged investors to buy paper which the sellers knew was worthless or close to worthless.
 
"Don't worry, some of us still believe greed is good! Tell me, at what point does one become 'greedy', or has earned enough money? I work hard and each year I've earned more money. And each year I plan to make more."

I sincerely hope that you continue to experience great success in your life. I think that greed is not necessarily a bad thing, only when it becomes an end in itself and all sense of proportionality is lost. Every major religion I am aware of addresses this issue and the obligation of those more fortunate to aid and assist those less fortunate.

My view is firmly grounded in those ideals as well as of enlightened self interest. By ensuring that programs are in place to assist the poor, mentally and physically inform etc, society as a whole benefits. Poor youth who receive job training or advanced education increase the likelihood of their beneficial participation in the marketplace both as contributors and consumers.





"What if I come up with an idea or product, and after much time and hard work, bring it to the market place and millions of these widgets fly off the shelves and I make a few hundred $K. I then take the money and invest in several start up companies, of which, most fail, but then there's one or two which succeed, and after growing them, I'm able to sell for a few million dollars. And this goes on and on.....where did I become greedy."

Let me know when the process is complete and we can discuss it. ;-) But my only comment beyond what I mentioned above already is the inherent danger that the person making all that money start to think he is somehow entitled because he or she is somehow superior. Donald Trump is someone who comes to mind in that respect.

"Or, I could be born into a family which doesn't have much income and I'm told since childhood, I'm a 'victum' and it's not my fault. I engage in activities which lead me to drop out of High School, but, don't worry, there's welfare. Or food stamps. Or wic. Or Medicade. Or ...Or I can get a job for a short time and then ensure I'm fired so I can collect unemployment for 99 weeks. After all, life's not fair and I'm owed it! (don't forget, all the money from government, it isn't someone elses money, it's the government's!)
So, which one of these is greedy?"

First of all I do not think it is an either or situation. Lots of people who have come from lower income families work very hard to get ahead. My family being a good example. Others of my friends as well as youths I have mentored being others who in my life experience took advantage of opportunities to advance themselves and become productive members of society.

As for living on 200.00 a month in food stamps, please be my guest. That is the maximum amount. Unemployment? Around 400.00 a week maximum and of course one mush have been employed in order to qualify. WIC is for infants and children under a certain age so I doubt either you or I qualify. Welfare? What's that? Supplemental Security Income? A big 300.00 a month. And again one must have some very specific reason why one qualifies. General Assistance? $450,00 a month and again it is a temporary program which one must qualify for. Many states require workfare to qualify, i.e., one must perform community service work to receive the benefits. Let me know how that works out for you.

Having worked with youth who were at risk in San Francisco, one of the more liberal cities in the country let me explain to you how it works.

1. General Assistance - SF will provide GA to an able bodied individual for a limited period of time. They must have a permanent address where they receive mail and reside. They can get up to $450.00 a month. They must attend classes to assist them in obtaining the necessary education to qualify for employment or be enrolled in a job training program. They must perform community service work each month. A certain portion of their GA check will be withheld each month and paid directly to their landlord.

2. Food Stamps - for a single person the maximum amount is 225.00 a month.

3. SSI - must qualify under the guidelines for that program, typically age or some sort of disability, either temporary or permanent. If the person is also receiving GA, their GA is reduced by the amount of their SSA.

4. Disability - there are several types of disability. The state program pays for work related injuries and is proportional based upon a set ratio. All employees and employers pay into the account which pays this money out. Social Security disability pays for certain covered forms of temporary and permanent disability. It pays as I recall about 400.00 less than the amount the person would have received as Social Security on retirement. Again, one must have a sufficient number of quarters paid into the SS system in order qualify. The amount of disability is reduced by the amount of any other types of income the person is receiving.

The simple reality is that if you are content to live in a vermin infested, single room occupancy hotel and eat less than healthy food, you can live on "welfare" as a single person.
 
Juanjo,

Very nice explanation of subprime. You also make some excellent points in your second post. Thanks for taking the time.

Tim
 
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