OK, guys,
Let's get this straight. (And I'm going to speak candidly, because I DO have a dog in this fight - having both LOTS of RUSSIAN, and LOTS of UKRAINIAN, friends.)
It is clear that Putin HAS invaded the eastern part of Ukraine. Whereas these operations were initially carefully camouflaged, as actions by "local volunteers" - they are becoming increasing overt.
*In recent days, not just "white humanitarian trucks" have entered into Ukraine, without the inspection or leave of the Ukrainian authorities - but so have tanks, artillery, and hundreds of Russian regular troops.
http://news.nationalpost.com/2014/0...orces-leading-major-stealth-invasion-in-east/
*The Ukrainian army has captured numbers of Russian soldiers involved in these operations - soldiers who were NOT told what their mission WAS.
http://news.nationalpost.com/2014/0...russian-soldiers-beg-vladimir-putin-for-help/
*Regular-army Russian troops have been killed, in operations fighting to destabilize Ukraine - and they have been dumped in the ground, given a quick spritz by the attached Russian Orthodox clergyman, and left to rot, anonymously: with neither their lives NOR their deaths NOR their names, having been acknowledged, to their grieving parents.
http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-28949582
*Putin WILL keep going with this. It is his plan, if not to annex the eastern regions of Ukraine, at the very least to decentralize and federalize the country to the point that the eastern regions will be a permanent, and subservient, client of Moscow.
http://www.foreignpolicy.com/articl...he_predator_saakashvili_putin_ukraine_georgia
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Why is Putin doing this? Well. . .
*His regime is getting old. There are not that many middle-class Russians (it is a very new, and relatively small, but still influential class): but those who are IN that class, are getting tired of him. He is falling back for support now, on the bureaucracy, and the security forces - whom he can BRIBE: and on the lower classes, whom he can stir with patriotism, and religion.
*The Russian economy, very robust a few years ago, is foundering, as global energy prices have fallen - due to two factors: global recession, and the discovery of greater oil reserves embedded in SHALE, in the West. Putin's legitimacy as a leader has been founded on two things: his restoration of prosperity to a significant minority, after the economic chaos of the Yeltsin years; AND - his TOUGHNESS as a leader, dealing with both internal and external, strife. Now that the economy is in trouble - TOUGHNESS is his sole card to play.
*A lot of people forget that Putin's
modus operandi has never really changed. He MADE his name, and got to be President, based on his tough military crackdown in Chechnya. When times got tough, a little later, he annexed (virtually) South Ossetia, and Abkhazia. And, many Russian people loved him, for doing so.
*Now, he's up to his same old tricks - but on a larger scale. As those of you who are well-versed in Slavic history know, EVERY good Russian (and I mean, even the NICE, LIBERAL ONES) view Ukraine as an integral part of Russia.
KIEV was the city from which Russian civilization AROSE - while MOSCOW was still a collection of mean, frozen, HUTS. And Ukraine as a whole - with its verdant wheat-fields, and rich OIL-FIELDS, was always the prime star in the Tsarist, and then the Communist, constellation. HITLER wanted Ukraine, more than ANY other prize, but Paris (and he got part of it). So, no wonder, the Russians want it BACK.
*Jon, just to modulate, for a moment - you would be very surprised, I think, about how some Russian minds work - if you knew some of the Russian guys I do: and I have had the chance to meet a few nice (and really SEXY!) ones. These are sweet, totally friendly and kind guys, in their mid-to-late twenties. NICEST PEOPLE EVER. And very gentle and loving and caring, too.
*But, Jon, I had a nice evening with my friend Dmitri, one night, a decade ago. We drank some Scotch, we talked about poetry (and that is ONE BIG MARCH young Russian guys have over anybody of comparable age, in the West - poetry is still loved and revered, there), and we had a lovely evening. BUT JON, toward the END of that bottle of "FAMOUS GROUSE" (thank you, Princess Margaret, for being there in spirit ;-). . . . Dmitri began to wax on and on about how. . . "A, you know when I was a little boy (he could have been only in diapers, at most) - RUSSIA was the world's GREATEST POWER. We ruled half of Europe, and half of Asia, and even the AMERICANS were f***ing AFRAID of US!!!" (And he smiled, a sweet and wistful, little smile. . . )
*Well, Jon, this is PRECISELY the kind of nostalgia that Putin is playing upon. The nostalgic dream that Russia could ONCE AGAIN be the mightiest force in world politics, and RULE half the globe. Because, if you
can't give people bread - you have to give them circuses: and,
this is Putin's CIRCUS.
*Jon, I am not an economist - that's for sure!!! LOL!!! And I am not someone schooled in the military sciences. What I have spent my life, studying, is IDEOLOGIES: and the way people THINK, and convince others to think, as they do. And Putin has done something QUITE NOVEL -
he has invented his OWN IDEOLOGY. It is half-fascist and authoritarian, and half-communist and communitarian ~ it rests partly upon nostalgia for BOTH the Tsars AND Stalin; partly upon the desire to RESTORE Russia to imperial greatness; partly upon greed and the desire many have to seize upon Russia's natural riches; and partly upon an ancient affinity (both sweet AND sour) for the pieties of the Orthodox Church, and family, and faith. (It is interesting to note that, in the U.S.A., right UP to the invasion of Ukraine, there were quite a number of Republican statesmen who were praising Putin as PREFERABLE to Obama, both because of his effective
realpolitik. . . and because Putin puts GAYS in their PLACE.)
*The best article you could possibly read, on this subject, is one written by the very brilliant David Remnick (whom I greatly admire, and who has spent a lifetime studying Russia, and all things, Russian):
http://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2014/08/11/watching-eclipse
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So, what can we, in the West, actually DO, about the Russian invasion of Ukraine??? I'm sad to say, the answer is F***-ALL. As Putin told a troop of Russian boy-scouts, last week, "We're one of the world's leading nuclear powers - - - so the West better not MESS with us." (And, of course, he's right.)
http://news.nationalpost.com/2014/0...lear-powers-and-its-best-not-to-mess-with-us/
Ladies and gentlemen, it's BACK to the DAMNED COLD WAR again (though on a lesser scale): like it or not. And the word of the day (like it or not) is going to be that old word that HARRY TRUMAN used. . .
containment.
We can't beat the Russians by force. All we can do - if North Americans and Europeans stick together - is gradually, GRADUALLY, cinch up sanctions on Putin and his cronies, so that eventually, his cronies get tired of HIM - OR his designated successor. So that destroying Ukraine doesn't seem like quite the luscious meringue-pie, it originally did.
Getting Russia back to being a safe place for GAY people to live - well, that's a whole different story. Gay people were persecuted, jailed, and killed under Stalin, Khrushchev, and Brezhnev. . . after the fall of the Soviet Empire, they had about EIGHT YEARS of freedom and happiness (even though they had nothing to EAT). . . and now, under Putin, it's back to the same old, same old.
Our governments (in all the Western countries) will be hard-pressed to HELP Ukraine. This is going to be a long-term struggle: JON may live to see the end of it, but I will NOT. The only answer will be tougher and tougher sanctions ON Russia - and more and more economic support for Ukraine to establish itself. And, the discernment to find effective ways to wean Western Europe off Russian oil and gas. . . which is becoming to Western Europe, now, the same kind of millstone that Saudi oil has been to North America, for generations.
AND - PLEASE don't forget. . . Russians are human beings, too. It is not their fault that their leader thinks he is the new Peter the Great (with just an oregano-dash, of Mussolini). Right now, in Russia, I know (personally) gay Christians, Jews, Muslims, and atheists - all of whom could be arrested, beaten, or sent to prison AT ANY TIME, if the wrong, over-zealous policeman caught them looking at their boyfriend, from the
wrong direction.
We have it easy. Russian gays have it tough. Please think of them, pray for them, work with Amnesty International for them, or whatever you can do. Just don't
FORGET THEM.
Hugs,
"A" XOXOXOXOXOXOXO
*Russian Orthodox Choir, Moscow, singing Chesnokov's "Gabriel Appeared" ~
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XzK5YEVMHn4
P.S. Sorry for typo's - but I want to get this sent - - - before I accidentally delete the whole post ;-)
Last P.S. Here is a tweet the Canadian Embassy recently sent the Russian Embassy. I understand it made the Russians really, REALLY, mad ;-)
