juanjo
BSB Addict
Personally I am not as blase about this as some people are. This is a serious issue and I think the court could go either way on this issue. Scalia, Roberts, Thomas and Alito will be solid against same sex marriage. Scalia because of his religion, Alito the same, Roberts because he does not believe in same sex marriage on constitutional reasons and Thomas because he does whatever Scalia tells him to do. There will be four votes on the other side most likely - Sotomayor, Kagan, Ginsburg and Breyer, with Kennedy being the swing vote.
Kennedy may not agree with the idea of same sex marriage coming into all the states via the court decision. The DOMA case was a lot easier for him simply because there were solid constitutional grounds about federal/state powers which were in play there. This time they are balanced the other direction on the federal/state issue [except for the Supremacy argument. i.e. the US Constitution is the supreme law of the land and trumps state law or constitution] and so it boils down to an acceptance of the 14th Amendment argument and there being no rational legislative basis for banning marriage rights for all. In other words SCOTUS has to shit or get off the pot.
Kennedy may not agree with the idea of same sex marriage coming into all the states via the court decision. The DOMA case was a lot easier for him simply because there were solid constitutional grounds about federal/state powers which were in play there. This time they are balanced the other direction on the federal/state issue [except for the Supremacy argument. i.e. the US Constitution is the supreme law of the land and trumps state law or constitution] and so it boils down to an acceptance of the 14th Amendment argument and there being no rational legislative basis for banning marriage rights for all. In other words SCOTUS has to shit or get off the pot.